Suggest Questions For Metaculus/ACX Forecasting Contest
Deep Dives
Explore related topics with these Wikipedia articles, rewritten for enjoyable reading:
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Prediction market
15 min read
The article discusses forecasting contests where participants predict future outcomes - prediction markets are the foundational concept behind platforms like Metaculus, explaining how aggregating predictions can yield accurate forecasts
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The Good Judgment Project
12 min read
With 4500+ forecasters competing to predict outcomes, readers would benefit from understanding the research on what makes some forecasters exceptionally accurate, based on Philip Tetlock's influential work
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Brier score
9 min read
Forecasting contests need scoring rules to evaluate predictions - the Brier score is the standard metric used by platforms like Metaculus to measure forecast accuracy
ACX has been co-running a forecasting contest with Metaculus for the past few years. Lately the “co-running” has drifted towards them doing all the work and giving me credit, but that’s how I like it! Last year’s contest included more than 4500 forecasters predicting on 33 questions covering US politics, international events, AI, and more.
They’re preparing for this year’s contest, and currently looking for interesting questions. These could be any objective outcome that might or might not happen in 2026, whose answer will be known by the end of the year. Not “Will Congress do a good job?”, but “Will Congress’ approval rating be above 40% on December 1, 2026?”. Or, even better, “Will Congress’ approval rating be above 40% according to the first NYT Congressional Approval Tracker update to be published after December 1, 2026?”. Please share ideas for 2026 forecast questions here. The top ten question contributors will win prizes from $150 to $700. You can see examples of last year’s questions here (click on each one for more details).
This year’s contest will also include AI bots, who will compete against the humans and one another for prizes of their own. To learn more about building a Metaculus forecasting bot, see here.
I’ll keep you updated on when the contest begins.
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