How can we be sure changes in polls reflect real changes in opinion?
Deep Dives
Explore related topics with these Wikipedia articles, rewritten for enjoyable reading:
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Margin of error
8 min read
Directly relevant to distinguishing real poll movements from random variation - readers need to understand confidence intervals to properly interpret whether poll changes are meaningful
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Response bias
11 min read
A key methodological concern in polling that affects whether measured changes reflect true opinion shifts or systematic measurement artifacts like social desirability bias or nonresponse patterns
Dear readers,
I’m supposed to be taking the week/end off for Thanksgiving, but I couldn’t resist sending a short post here for paying subscribers. Let’s say the normal Chart of the Week and Sunday roundup are both off for the holiday, but members get a special treat to go with their morning coffee and leftover pie (don’t lie, we’re all doing it).
Before t…
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