Putin Cannot Afford a Peace Deal Now. The Big Five, 1 February edition

It has been another fascinating week to be an observer of international and military affairs.

Ukraine has agreed to an energy truce, which sees them holding off on attacking Russian energy infrastructure. But this has not halted Russian attacks on other civilian infrastructure including a civil train service in Kharkiv. Concurrently, peace negotiations are occurring, although they show little progress.

In the Pacific, China continues its campaign of aggression against Taiwan in the skies, at sea and in the information domain. At the same time, Taiwan launched its first indigenous submarine and announced changes to its integration of professional and conscripted soldiers.

In my Ukraine update this week, I have opted for a single, longer op-ed that is focused on why Putin is unlikely to agree to a peace deal in the short term, and therefore why the current round of talks are unlikely to gain much traction. I hope it proves informative.

Welcome to this week’s edition of The Big Five.

Ukraine

Another Round of Peace Talks. There is one message that we should take away from the current round of talks to end the war in Ukraine: Putin does not want the war to end right now.

Peace talks for the war in Ukraine continue to drag out. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, along with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Jared Kushner, and senior advisor to the U.S. President’s Board of Peace Josh Gruenbaum met with Russia’s lead negotiator Kirill Dmitriev in Miami on 31 January. These talks, like all previous discussions, were described as “productive” and “constructive.” In a social media post, Witkoff stated that:

We are encouraged by this meeting that Russia is working toward securing peace in Ukraine and is grateful for @POTUS’s critical leadership in seeking a durable and lasting peace.

The United States negotiating team is also planning to meet again with Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Abu Dhabi on the first of February.

These latest discussions are being held against the backdrop of a truce on strikes against energy facilities. At least Ukraine is sticking to this arrangement. There is no word from Russia about whether they intend doing so.

Besides this ‘energy truce’, and an exchange of fallen soldiers this week, very little else has emerged from the recent talks designed to end the current war in Ukraine. There is a very simple reason why there