The Oreshnik is the sign of a Fearful, Worried Putin, Not a Leader Confident of Victory: The Big Five 11 January 2026.
We stand ready to commit to a system of politically and legally binding guarantees that will be activated once a ceasefire enters into force, in addition to bilateral security agreements and in accordance with our respective legal and constitutional arrangements. Paris Declaration on Ukraine’s future security, 6 January 2026
The past week has seen surge in strategically important events.
The civil strife in Iran, the raid on Venezuela, the threats against Mexico, Cuba and Greenland, the desperate European diplomacy to deter a Trump administration move against Greenland, as well as a Russian IRBM attack on Ukraine and China’s efforts in the wake of the Venezuela operation to portray itself as a credible geostrategic leader. We live in interesting times.
Welcome to my first weekly update and Big Five for 2026!
Ukraine
The Oreshnik Attack. Both Ukrainian and Russian officials have now confirmed that Russia did indeed launch an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strike against Lviv on the evening of 8-9 January 2026. It is only the second time the Russians have employed this missile during the war.
The Oreshnik missile has a range of up to 5,500 kilometres and can mount both single or multiple conventional and nuclear warheads. Travelling at speeds over 12,000 kilometres per hour, this is a missile which very few defence systems can intercept. The excellent Missile Matters Substack had a good feature on this missile back in November 2024, which you can read here. More recently, the United24 website also has an in-depth review of the missile and its capabilities, and that can be read at this link.
A central reason for the deployment of the Russian Oreshnik to Belarus, and its use against a civilian infrastructure target in Lviv, is to demonstrate that Russia remains a nuclear-armed, world power. In this guise, it is a psychological weapon – an instrument of Putin’s cognitive war against Ukraine and the West – rather than a weapon of mass physical destruction.
As I wrote earlier this week, Putin has had a bad couple of weeks in regard to Russia’s position in the world. The raid on Venezuela, which showed how little Russia was able help those it expressed support for, the boarding the Bella 1
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