Ahead of State of the Union, Trump's approval falls to new low of 37%

This article reports results from the February 2026 Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll. You can read our previous poll releases here. Subscribers to Strength In Numbers have access to additional tracking visuals and a full archive of crosstabs here. Subscribers can also suggest questions for future polls here, or leave them in the comments section below!

Tonight, Donald Trump will deliver the first formal State of the Union address of his second term to a joint session of Congress. The speech is widely seen as a test run for Republican midterm messaging — an attempt to reframe the narrative on the economy, immigration, and tariffs ahead of November. In an interview last week, Vice President JD Vance previewed the speech, saying Trump would focus on his success in “bringing jobs back into our country,” “reshoring manufacturing,” and cutting energy prices.

But the numbers Trump faces going into his speech are brutal. Our brand-new February Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds the president at his lowest point on virtually every metric. Trump’s overall job approval has fallen to net -22, and he’s now underwater or tied on every single issue we track, including border security, which had been his last remaining bright spot. Democrats have opened a 10-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, the widest we’ve recorded. And voters disapprove of Trump’s tariff policy — presumably his focus, according to Vance, and which was largely invalidated by the Supreme Court last week — by 21 points.

Trump will use his SOTU address to refocus attention on all the “great things” he has done for the American people in his first year in office. But the average person is saying they don’t support his agenda. The State of our Union, in one term, is anti-Trump.

Headline poll findings

• Generic ballot: Democrats lead Republicans 52% to 42% among registered voters — a 10-point margin and the widest lead since we started this tracking poll

• Presidential approval: 37% of U.S. adults approve of Trump’s job performance; 59% disapprove (net -22). Trump’s approval among political independents is just 20% in our data.

• No positive issues left: Trump’s approval on border security — his one remaining bright spot — dropped from net +4 to net 0 over the last month. He is now underwater or even on every issue we test.

• Trump approval on government

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