USA's 28-Point Ukraine Peace Plan is D.O.A
Deep Dives
Explore related topics with these Wikipedia articles, rewritten for enjoyable reading:
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Minsk agreements
11 min read
The article references '30 years of ambiguities' in security negotiations and failed diplomatic efforts. The Minsk agreements represent the most significant prior attempt at resolving the Ukraine conflict and provide essential context for understanding why current peace proposals face skepticism.
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Peace negotiations in the Russo-Ukrainian war (2022–present)
17 min read
The article specifically references 'Istanbul negotiations' and security guarantee discussions. These early 2022 peace talks came closest to ending the war and provide direct precedent for the current 28-point proposal's structure.
News broke over the last days about ‘secret back-channel talks’ leading to a USA proposal for a 28-Point Ukraine Peace Plan.
Ukrainian media outlets have released the complete document. And my analysis is that this peace plan is D.O.A. (dead on arrival). Strange as it may seem, European Union Foreign Minister Kaja Kallas is right. This plan has no chance of working.
In this bonus post (now unlocked for all readers 23/11) I share with you:
the full document of the 28-Point Ukraine Peace Plan
my analysis of the 28 points and what they reveal about the Ukraine Endgame
my assessment of what commentators get wrong about this peace process.
Hint: Don’t blame Europe.
The 28-Point Ukraine Peace Plan
Ukrainian political scientist Ivan Katchanovski published the details of the 28 point plan earlier today, with a full English translation from documents leaked to the Ukrainian media. The New York Post later confirmed all these details in American reporting of the document.
The document is likely a developed draft by US officials of the “no paper” circulated by Russian officials following the Anchorage summit.
The Russian President and Foreign Minister have referred to this document and there was speculation that it contained 31 points. John Helmer has reported that the 28 point plan is a US adaptation.
There is no reason to suppose that Russian officials, or event the US Cabinet has agreed to these documents. It may still be an advanced draft of the “no paper.” A “no paper” is a diplomatic document drafted without prejudice or commitment to enable open discussion of possible terms of negotiation. It provides a framework for a process, but does not signal agreement
There are reports that US President Special Envoy to Ukraine may have leaked the document to sabotage negotiations and in dissatisfaction with the directions of negotiations. Reports of his January departure may support this. However, early reports from Ukraine are that Ukrainian officials may well defy the USA on both this plan and the corruption issue. Speculation about the source of leaks is generally unhelpful.
As you will see in reading the 28 points, the document is heavily skewed to US interests. There are likely to be significant departures from any initial Russian official draft document. There are points proposing action by the EU, Britain and Ukraine that the USA
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