Central Asia and Belarus’ role in militarily-sensitive trade

This is the second article in a series on China-to-Russia trade of military-significant "Common High Priority List" (CHPL) items. The first article focused on direct trade; this one examines indirect trade via Central Asia and Belarus.

Russia is increasingly prioritizing Tier 4.A goods (equipment for manufacturing, testing, and producing electric components), with most of the $120 million in Chinese Tier 4.A exports to Russia, Belarus, and Central Asia over the past three months going directly to Russia ($112 million). However, rising Chinese Tier 4.A exports to Central Asia and Belarus suggest Russia may be building alternative trade routes. Imports to Central Asia and Belarus remain elevated, almost certainly supporting indirect China-to-Russia trade of sensitive items.

CHPL categories:

The U.S., EU, UK, and Japan have compiled the “Common High Priority List,” or CHPL, of 50 items that are most relevant for Russia’s war effort. The CHPL of militarily-sensitive items is divided into four tiers, per the U.S. Department of Commerce:

·         Tier 1: Items of the highest concern due to their critical role in the production of advanced Russian precision-guided weapons systems, Russia’s lack of domestic production, and limited global manufacturers.

·         Tier 2: Additional electronics items for which Russia may have some domestic production capability but a preference to source from the United States and its partners and allies.

·         Tier 3.A: Further electronic components used in Russian weapons systems, with a broader range of suppliers.

·         Tier 3.B: Mechanical and other components utilized in Russian weapons systems.

·         Tier 4.A: Manufacturing, production and quality testing equipment for electric components, circuit boards and modules.

·         Tier 4.B: Computer Numerically Controlled (CNC) machine tools and components.

Central Asia and Belarus: CHPL relative imports

Chinese exports to Central Asia and Belarus have surged since the beginning of the invasion and remain highly elevated. Note that the sharp initial decline in exports this year is almost certainly attributable to Lunar New Year: Chinese monthly global exports dropped from $307 billion in January 2024 to just $220 billion the next month.

Source: PRC GACC, Author’s Calculations

Chinese CHPL exports to Central Asia and Belarus have stabilized in absolute terms but are driven by Tier 3.B, which includes items such as ball bearings and other mechanical components.

Source: PRC GACC, Author’s Calculations

Central Asia + Belarus’ imports of Tier 4.B items (Computer Numerically Controlled (CNC) machine tools and components)