Irregular: Does China or the US rule the world?
Deep Dives
Explore related topics with these Wikipedia articles, rewritten for enjoyable reading:
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Thucydides Trap
14 min read
The article's framing of US-China rivalry as a power transition echoes this concept coined by Graham Allison, which describes the historical pattern of conflict when a rising power threatens an established one - directly relevant to the debate's central question
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First Opium War
15 min read
The author explicitly references the Opium Wars to illustrate how economic size doesn't equal power, using 1830s China vs Britain as a historical parallel - readers would benefit from deeper understanding of this pivotal conflict
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Purchasing power parity
13 min read
The debate hinges on comparing US and Chinese economic power using both nominal GDP and PPP measures - understanding this economic concept is essential for evaluating the competing claims about which economy is larger
Hello from Melbourne,
In today’s Irregular, I would like to share with you a transcript of a debate that Michael and I had last week at a public event in Sydney.
The topic: Does China or the United States rule the world?
We covered quite a lot of ground, comparing each country’s military strength, economic depth, record of innovation, diplomatic clout, and its overall trajectory and influence in international affairs.
We were hosted at Florence Guild, an organisation dedicated to stimulating debate. And so that’s what we tried to do. We flipped a coin to choose sides – I got saddled with arguing that the United States remains the preeminent global power, while Michael had to take up the case that China is likely already the world’s most powerful country – and even if it isn’t quite there yet, that’s where things are headed.
As a result, as in much of life, we didn’t necessarily mean everything that we said. Nevertheless, we hope you find the debate interesting and thought-provoking. And we would be very curious to hear how you land.
After all, the stakes are quite high. The United States and China shape world affairs in myriad ways that affect us all. And, as was the topic of yesterday’s Week Signals, how they deal with each other matters perhaps even more.
You can find the transcript below.
Best wishes,
Damien
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Damien:
Just by way of introduction, Michael and I started a firm called Geopolitical Strategy a few years ago, advising corporates on geopolitics – something that was a bit niche until Donald Trump returned to power for a Second Coming.
But we actually met back in 2013 when we both joined the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. I recall the final question in our interview process was about how Australia should manage its relationship with the United States and China. So this is an old question and one we’ve been debating for a long time. But it’s taken on a new and important resonance because, back then, the United States was clearly much more powerful than China.
...This excerpt is provided for preview purposes. Full article content is available on the original publication.