Pitching Hackathon Ideas: Oxymoron
Deep Dives
Explore related topics with these Wikipedia articles, rewritten for enjoyable reading:
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Convexity (finance)
13 min read
The article explicitly mentions 'convex payoffs' - a small chance of a very large payoff. Understanding convexity in financial terms illuminates why hackathons are structured to maximize optionality and why filtering out high-variance ideas destroys expected value.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
17 min read
The article's core argument about convex payoffs, embracing uncertainty, and humans being bad at evaluating rare events echoes Taleb's work on antifragility and black swan events. Understanding his philosophy provides the theoretical foundation for why 'embracing chaos' in hackathons creates value.
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Prospect theory
15 min read
The article states 'we are incapable of making rational decisions about infrequent events.' Prospect theory, developed by Kahneman and Tversky, explains exactly why humans systematically misjudge low-probability, high-impact events - the psychological mechanism behind why pitch committees reject the best hackathon ideas.
The economic rationale for hackathons is that they create value by injecting uncertainty into development. The trend towards “pitches” for hackathons, while instituted with good intent, destroys value.
In the 3X: Explore/Expand/Extract model, hackathons are exploration. The payoff of a hackathon is convex, a very small chance of a very large payoff (but an almost-certainty of over-eating and sleep deprivation).
Success is always a surprise (except to the wacko who proposed it). The bigger the payoff, the bigger the surprise.
The mistake of pitching for hackathons is that the highest expected value projects are exactly those most likely to be thrown out with the bathwater.
Those calling for pitches for hackathons are smart and trying to do good. I’m guessing here (feel free to chime in and I’ll correct), but it seems to me that the positive role for pitches is to protect some limited resource: hardware, expertise, time.
Rather than filtering, higher value strategies are to:
Increase the supply of the limited resource
Reduce the cost per hack of the limited resource
Let the hackers negotiate access to the limited resource instead of resolving contention early
As humans, we are incapable of making rational decisions about infrequent events. That’s why hacks tap into passion and intuition and a little primate dominance display. Hacking gives us access to decision wisdom otherwise unavailable. Embrace the chaos.
P.S. A value-creating hackathon pitch would be to present the hack idea and if everyone approves, to absolutely forbid the hack on the grounds that such a good idea is likely to happen anyway and we don’t need to waste hack time on it.
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