Briefing: Trump's National Security Strategy
Deep Dives
Explore related topics with these Wikipedia articles, rewritten for enjoyable reading:
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Nixon Doctrine
10 min read
The article explicitly references a 'Nixon–Reagan sequence' as a historical parallel to Trump's strategic retrenchment. Understanding the Nixon Doctrine—where the US shifted burden-sharing to allies while maintaining strategic commitments—provides essential context for interpreting Chinese analysts' views on whether current US policy represents genuine withdrawal or strategic repositioning.
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Yalta Conference
15 min read
Chinese commentators reference 'Yalta 2.0' as a framework for understanding potential great-power sphere-of-influence arrangements. The original 1945 conference where Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin divided post-war Europe provides crucial historical context for understanding how analysts conceptualize potential US-China territorial accommodations.
Today’s briefing draws on a body of more than thirty articles and is followed by a short selection of views—representative, thought-provoking, or otherwise notable.
Executive Summary
The NSS is widely read—by Chinese and Western analysts alike—as strategic narrowing: an abdication of the US “global policeman” role and a step back from overt global hegemony.
Where they diverge is on causality and intent. Western analysis tends to diagnose ideological abdication, while Chinese commentary more often frames the shift as recalibration under decline, overreach and finite power.
The dominant mood in Chinese commentary is caution rather than triumphalism. A few see a fleeting “Trump opportunity period”, but many warn that retrenchment could generate turbulence and instability.
A leading strand argues the retreat is not real at all, but instead “strategic retrenchment” designed to let the US recuperate, rebuild and return later with greater capacity.
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A related view sees a shift in the method of hegemony: softer rhetoric and fewer explicit threats paired with a deeper commitment to long-term competition.
Some authors even argue that Trump’s fixation on European identity might eventually strengthen alliance cohesion, reframing the China contest by replacing values with civilisational identity.
Although China is named less aggressively, intent is judged unchanged. Beijing is repeatedly warned not to mistake toned-down language for reduced pressure.
The "Western Hemisphere first" move prompts some speculation about a transactional carve-up, but most treat this as rumour. More commonly, it is read as sphere-of-influence logic repackaged.
NATO is expected to reshape rather than collapse: costs shift to Europe while US control persists, and some anticipate a harder, identity-based mobilisation that could sharpen anti-China alignment.
Chinese and Western analyses broadly agree that the NSS marks a narrowing of US strategy and an abdication of its role as global policeman—or, as one Chinese author puts it, a “deliberate renunciation of America’s role as a global hegemon” (主动放弃了美国的全球霸权角色) (1).
Where they diverge is on causality and intent. While Western commentary tends to treat the shift as ideological abdication, Chinese authors more often frame it as a necessary recalibration in the face of decline and overreach—a recognition of the “finite nature of American power” (承认美国力量有限) (29).
The dominant tone is caution rather than ...
This excerpt is provided for preview purposes. Full article content is available on the original publication.