Intro: Art and Commerce

Most movies are privately financed, creating a constant tug-of-war between art and commerce. Some projects lean toward the commercial—think Marvel, music biopics, lega-sequels, or anything starring Vin Diesel. Others skew toward the artistic, often marked by 20-minute film festival standing ovations. But once in a while, a film strikes a rare balance: offering big-budget spectacle that earns critical praise, delights general audiences, and elicits extended applause from festival-clappers. These are the unicorns of modern cinema—Poor Things, Oppenheimer, Barbie, Everything Everywhere All At Once, and most recently, One Battle After Another.

Yet the extent to which One Battle After Another balances art and commerce is of great debate (at least online). The film currently holds a 95% on Rotten Tomatoes, is the frontrunner for Best Picture, and is projected to earn around $200 million globally by the end of its theatrical run. The catch? With a production budget of $130 million, considerable marketing spend on top of that, and theaters taking 50% of box office revenue, the film will not break even from ticket sales alone.

Industry coverage has responded by shaming those responsible for the film:

• Slash Film wrote an article titled “5 Reasons Why One Battle After Another Flopped At The Box Office.”

• Variety quipped, “One Battle After Another Projected to Lose $100 Million Theatrically.”

• The BBC offered an explainer on “Why the year’s most acclaimed film flopped.”

These are the same writers who bemoan Hollywood’s reliance on intellectual property and the industry’s aversion to original storytelling. I could spend a few paragraphs unpacking this hypocrisy, but there’s a lot to cover in this essay, so I’ll just say this: these articles are the worst.

Most baffling about this industry coverage is its myopic focus on box office, with no mention of the revenue this film will generate on streaming—a glaring omission that applies to most post-pandemic releases.

So today, we’ll demystify the economics of films once they leave theaters, unpack the myriad complexities that muddy these calculations, and explore why industry coverage is ill-equipped to track this evolving financial model.

The Before Times: VHS and DVD

In the before times, there was physical media. If people liked a movie, they might end up paying for it five times: first in theaters, then on VHS,