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Moldova's Approach to Reintegration

By David Smith · Moldova Matters · · 17 min read

Deep Dives

Explore related topics with these Wikipedia articles, rewritten for enjoyable reading:

  • De-Ba'athification 14 min read

    Linked in the article (39 min read)

  • Transnistria 12 min read

    While the article discusses Transnistria extensively, readers would benefit from deep background on this breakaway region's history since 1990, its Soviet-era origins, the 1992 war, and the unique frozen conflict dynamics that make it one of Europe's most unusual political entities.

This article is based on closed-door discussions held under Chatham House rules with Moldovan officials, international partners, and civil society actors, as well as subsequent background conversations. No participants agreed to be quoted or identified. The analysis reflects the author’s reporting, analysis and synthesis of these discussions.

A Window of Opportunity for Reintegration?

I recently wrote an article looking at the recent “elections” in Transnistria and the changed power dynamics between Chisinau and Tiraspol1. In it I lay out a political, economic and geopolitical landscape that means the status quo in Transnistria cannot hold.

With Transnistria weaker than ever before some see this as a moment of opportunity. Why not “solve” the Transnistria problem now and enter the EU without all this baggage? Given the region’s collapsing economy isn’t now a good time to apply pressure and force change?

This article will dive into how Moldova plans to approach reintegration and how talk of economic collapse leading to a window of opportunity may not present the full picture.

For those who missed the previous article, here’s a link:

The Nistru river largely divides the Transnistria region from the rest of Moldova - but not everywhere. Here both banks are controlled by the constitutional authorities and elsewhere the separatist “authorities” also have enclaves. It’s a reminder of the complex geography of the frozen conflict. Photo source: own work.

Setting the Baseline

Before discussing strategies and approaches to potential reintegration, here are some baseline facts and assumptions that are driving decision makers’ approach to the problem:

  1. Russia views Transnistria as a regional security asset. Russian uses the region to influence Moldova and its troops there are most often seen in that context. At the same time, Russia views them as an important regional asset given NATO deployments in Romania and because they pin down Ukrainian troops who guard the border2.

  2. The Economic crisis is not a sign of Russia losing interest in the region. Supporting Transnistria has gotten more expensive and Russia orchestrated an energy crisis in the region last winter. This was not a sign of losing interest or pinching pennies - it was calculated to create pressure on Chisinau3 and as a warning to Sheriff. The region’s economic crisis is real, but it should not be over interpreted - as point #1 attests, Russia’s main interest is and always was security related.

  3. There

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