Zhang Youxia 张又侠 has fallen. We thought he would be the last man standing, but instead, he is a “tiger blocking the road” who “seriously fueled threats to the Party’s absolute leadership.” Xi had already purged more CMC members than Mao ever did, but this round of expulsions is distinct from mere anti-corruption housekeeping.

To discuss what makes this purge unique, ChinaTalk sat down with Jon Czin, a former China analyst at the CIA who served as China Director on Biden’s NSC and now works at the Brookings Institution. You can check out Jon’s previous ChinaTalk appearances here and here.

We discuss…

• Zhang Youxia’s long personal relationship with Xi, and how it could have soured,

• The WSJ’s bombshell report claiming that Zhang leaked information about China’s nuclear weapons to the USA,

• Why corruption alone can’t explain Zhang’s fate and the uniquely harsh methods of discipline Xi chose to use,

• Why Xi could be getting paranoid, and what this means for succession plans,

• Whether Zhang was purged because he stood up against Xi’s Taiwan invasion plans

Listen now on your favorite podcast app.

What Just Happened

Jordan Schneider: Zhang Youxia had a rough week. Jon, where do we begin?

Jon Czin: A lot of people in the China-watching community were frankly astonished that the rumors accumulating last week were real this time around — that Zhang Youxia was actually in trouble. And not just Zhang Youxia. His takedown has somewhat overshadowed the demise of Liu Zhenli 刘振立, who was running the Joint Staff Department. That’s another CMC member leaving the Central Military Commission, which now has just two members: Xi Jinping, of course, and Zhang Shengmin 張升民, who ironically runs the Discipline Inspection Commission — the chief internal investigator for all these anti-corruption campaigns.

Jordan Schneider: “Ironically” might not be the right word here, Jon.

Jon Czin: That’s fair. Maybe “tellingly” is better. This is a pretty remarkable moment in Chinese politics — it’s not an overstatement to call it Shakespearean. The few facts we do know are quite dramatic, even without the embroidery of speculation and rumors from the last few days.

We know their fathers served together in China’s civil war. We know there was some kind of nexus between Xi and Zhang Youxia — and that’s not just historic. Xi kept Zhang around at the last Party Congress even though he had exceeded the retirement ...