Energy transition: the end of an idea

Pretty much the last nail in the coffin for the idea that there’s going to be a smooth transition out of fossil fuels and into renewables that can rescue the existing high-energy global economy in anything like its present form comes courtesy of Jean-Baptiste Fressoz and his 2024 book More and More and More: An All-Consuming History of Energy. I wrote about the idea of a supposed energy ‘transition’ quite a bit last year (for example, here) and I don’t plan to go over that ground again. But Fressoz’s book is such an informative read that a post about it seems in order. Next up after this is a ‘taking stock’ post where I pick up on a few points raised by commenters previously that I’ve lamentably failed to respond to yet, and then we’ll move into some new territory.

Fressoz is an academic, a historian of science and technology, and he uses his specialism to good effect in his book, as I’ll relate in a moment. By the way, he appeared recently on Rachel Donald’s always informative Planet Critical podcast, where he covers the main points of his book with her – I’d recommend a listen.

Unlike Fressoz I’m not an academic expert on energy, though I’ve long taken an interest in the topic. You don’t really need much expertise to see that no transition out of fossil fuels is currently occurring or is likely anytime soon. Or that various transition clichés in circulation like ‘oil saved the whales and coal saved the forests’ are untrue. Still, Fressoz nails these myths with stimulating scholarly precision in his book. The real question is why do they continue to get so much airplay when they’re so obviously untrue? Largely, I think, because they tell a comforting story that people want to hear.

Fressoz writes:

Let us start by stating the obvious. After two centuries of ‘energy transitions’, humanity has never burned so much oil and gas, so much coal and so much wood. Today, around 2 billion cubic metres of wood are felled each year to be burned, three times more than a century ago. (p.2)

If only it was obvious to more people, perhaps we’d be having better discussions about the choices we now face.

Useful as it is to be reminded that new energy sources have only added to total energy usage and that many of ...