Rushing to Failure with Current Peace Talks? The Big Five, 8 February edition
“You want it bad, you get it bad”. Phrase heard by author at U.S. Marine Corps Command and Staff College.
It has been another fascinating week observing international and military affairs.
Fighting continues along the length of the front line, with the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief, General Syrskyi stating this week that Ukrainian forces were conducting operations along the length of the 1200km long frontline.
Russia conducted very large attacks on Ukraine on the evenings of 3 February (521 missiles and drones) and 7 February (447 missiles and drones). Because of the increasing penetration of Russian drones and missiles that are attacking Ukrainian infrastructure, President Zelenskyy has directed a shakeup of Ukraine’s air and missile defence system. As he stated on 6 February:
The short-range air defense component – focused on countering attack drones – must operate far more effectively and prevent the problems we are currently facing.
Finally this week, Ukraine hit a Russian factory that produces fuel for its cruise missiles, and Elon Musk also turned off Starlink for Russian frontline forces in Ukraine.
In my update this week, I have again decided to write about a single topic. This week the focus is on whether the American negotiating team is rushing to failure in wanting a March or June deadline for a peace deal. I hope it proves informative.
Welcome to this week’s edition of The Big Five.
Ukraine
Peace: Rushing to Failure?
Reports have emerged that the American team negotiating the Ukraine peace deal want to fast track a ceasefire and peace deal. Reuters has reported several sources have informed it that the United States would like to see a deal next month, and that this is followed by a Ukrainian national referendum on the issue. This would then be followed by national elections. Separately, President Zelenskyy has told reporters that the Trump administration want to end the war by June.
Why might the Trump administration want to fast-track a peace deal? There are several reasons.
First, Trump wants to deliver on his election promise to end the war in Ukraine and ‘end the killing.’ Every politician wants to at least try and deliver on election promises. The promise to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours was a prominent and oft-repeated promise by Trump in the lead up to the
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