Trump hits a record low with political independents — in every state

Dear readers,

First, I want to express my deep thanks to everyone who reads and supports Strength In Numbers. This week, several high-profile analysts and partisan pollsters engaged in extensive ad hominem attacks against me and even questioned my motivation for publishing this newsletter. This is all because I am coming to data-driven conclusions that expose errors in their theories of how politics works, or that otherwise conflict with their own narratives about politics and elections today.

Critics can say whatever they want. I say: Let’s stick to an empirical discussion of the data and the merits of various methods (ours are open-source, nobody else’s are) we can use to understand numbers and the world around us. I have no interest in getting involved in pointless schoolyard fights on social media.

My mission with this publication is to produce independent, empirical analysis of politics and voting behavior — and I will continue to do that job regardless of who it pisses off or the hit my reputation takes among the elite-contrarian-consultant industrial complex. The loudest critics of my work are the people who have the most to lose from there being a popular, independent alternative on the market. The pushback I’m getting is proof that there is a need for high-quality empirical political analysis that is independent of the monetary and groupthink incentives that drive so much of the media’s analysis today.

So, thank you for supporting me and this publication. My work is funded by you, my readers, and accountable to the facts, not billionaire donors or Super PACs paying me for my conclusions. A diverse group of paying subscribers — devoted to the idea that rigorous analysis of data can uncover more truths about the world than punditry and partisan spin — makes factual independent journalism and analysis possible. You can continue to rely on Strength In Numbers for high-quality journalism regardless of what the bullies, partisans, and wealthy and well-connected say about me.

Now, for this week’s data roundup: The lead story is Trump’s rising unpopularity with swing voters, nationally and in key states. New YouGov polling shows an all-time low for the president among political independents. Should Republican Senators in purple seats be worried?

On deck here at Strength In Numbers: This week, I’ll share the results of our post-election survey with Verasight — including the normal poll write-up, plus ...