Reality, Probability, and Perception
Deep Dives
Explore related topics with these Wikipedia articles, rewritten for enjoyable reading:
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Normal distribution
12 min read
The article extensively discusses probability distributions and the 'normal curve' as a framework for understanding future outcomes. A deeper understanding of normal distribution mathematics would help readers grasp the statistical concepts being applied to climate and economic forecasting.
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Representative Concentration Pathway
10 min read
The article discusses IPCC climate projections and temperature rise scenarios through 2100. RCPs are the specific scientific scenarios used by the IPCC to model these climate futures, directly relevant to understanding how the probability distributions for climate outcomes are constructed.
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Systems thinking
10 min read
The core argument of the article is that probability distributions for different outcomes (climate, GDP, biodiversity) are interconnected and influence each other. Systems thinking provides the formal framework for understanding these complex interdependencies that the author is describing.
Note: All of the graphs in this essay are conceptual except for the IPCC climate projections and nuclear fallout projections from the papers referenced.
This essay is adapted from a previous Frankly video titled “Reality, Probability, and Perception.”
Imagine being in a room with 20 or 30 of your friends, family, and neighbors – and asking them these questions:
What do you think the global temperature will be in 2100, relative to pre-industrial levels?
How big will the global human economy be by 2100, relative to today?
Of the 6,500 species of mammals alive today, how many will still exist in 2100?
You’ll likely hear a wide range of answers – even in a group this small. All of us have discrete views on this, ranging from ‘I have no idea, I don’t even know about next week!’ all the way to very specific predictions.
Eventually, there will be a concrete answer to these questions about the future, whether that be for your city, for your country, or for the planet.
Now, consider your own answer to those questions. You may articulate one number or scenario out loud – but in your mind, you’re not picturing just a single outcome. You’re likely envisioning a distribution of futures. You voice a discrete number you think is most likely, but it’s subconsciously resting on a mental curve of possibilities. But what exactly does this mean, and why does it matter?
Playing the Odds
The future of the global climate or projected growth in GDP are rather complex topics – so let’s start with a simpler example of how probability works in the real world. Let’s talk about NFL football.
Who played in the most recent Super Bowl? Since this was written in the summer of 2025, we now know it was the Philadelphia Eagles versus the Kansas City Chiefs.
Now imagine if I had asked you the same question in the summer of 2024 – when you knew nothing about the upcoming season – how would you have answered?
You might have started with the fact that there are 32 teams in the NFL, 16 in each division, and one team from each division will end up in the Superbowl. Statistics tells us that if you multiply the 16 teams in one division by the 16 teams in the other, you’ll get 256 possible matchups. If you knew nothing about ...
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