Europe or Russia?

In recent weeks the Trump administration has clarified, somewhat, its thinking on a “reverse Kissinger,” or where the U.S. aims to drive a wedge in the China-Russia axis or even detach Moscow from Beijing. In an interview with Breitbart News, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said:

I don’t know if we’ll ever be successful at peeling [Russia] completely off a relationship with the Chinese. I don’t think having China and Russia at each other’s neck is also good for global stability because they’re both nuclear powers. But I do think we’re in a situation now where the Russians have become increasingly dependent on the Chinese, and that’s not a good outcome either if you think about it. I mean, the idea that somehow – the big story of the 21st century is going to be U.S.-Chinese relations, and if China become – and if Russia becomes a permanent junior partner to China in the long term, well, now you’re talking about two nuclear powers aligned against the United States. And even 10 years from now, five years from now, if this trend continues, we could find ourselves in a situation with – where whether Russia wants to improve its relations with the U.S. or not, they can’t, because they’ve become completely dependent on the Chinese because we’ve cut them off.

Secretary Rubio recently issued another statement on Friday, saying “If it is not possible to end the war in Ukraine, we need to move on.”

As the New York Times noted, it’s unclear whether Rubio meant the U.S. would abandon efforts for a 30-day ceasefire or broader commitments to Ukraine. Still, there are troubling signs: Secretary Hegseth is only meeting virtually with Ukraine’s defense group; Vice President Vance has expressed deep hostility toward Europe; and President Trump has blamed Kyiv for Russia’s invasion. Meanwhile, the U.S. is imposing major tariffs on European democracies —but not on Russia or Belarus—despite minimal trade, sending a striking signal. Finally, the U.S. is levying major tariffs against the European Union – and other democracies – without applying the same taxes to Russia or Belarus. While U.S. trade with these two countries is negligible and already subject to sanctions, the symbolism is nevertheless striking, and suggests that the U.S. is willing to side with Russia over European democracies, at least on discrete issues.

This potential pivot toward Russia would harm U.S. ...