Podcast with Paul Krugman: What can the 2025 elections tell us about 2026?

Happy Saturday, readers,

I was delighted to sit down again with Paul Krugman this past Thursday to talk through the 2025 elections and what the results actually tell us. We cover the toplines — Democrats over-performed across Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and elsewhere — and then dig into the nitty gritty of which groups swung the most, and what it all means for 2026.

Here are a few selected topics from the conversation:

• First, the election results confirmed what the polls have been telling us for months: Trump is deeply unpopular, his policy agenda is unpopular, and when voters are forced to choose between Trump and something else, they choose something else.

• Second, the movement to Democrats was concentrated among the voters who powered Trump’s win in 2024: Latinos, Gen Z, and lower-income voters. Hispanic-heavy precincts shifted 60 points to the left. People who rank the economy as their top issue also broke decisively in the Democrats’ favor, a big reversal from 2024.

• And why did the Democrats win so big? In one word: affordability. In two words: affordability and Trump. When the economy isn’t delivering for the average voter, Americans usually respond by voting out the party that holds the White House. Trump’s unpopular agenda on immigration and tariffs likely exacerbated the swing against him, explaining a larger-than-average defeat in VA and NJ.

• We also get into why affordability — not hyper-optimizing issue positions or a radical shift to the center — is the path forward for Democrats. I look at the Strategist’s Fallacy in action, and urge people to think about politics beyond the 1-dimensional left-right ideological spectrum.

• Also, polls underestimated Democrats (a mirror image of recent cycles) by about a normal amount. This is notable because polls have tended to underestimate Republicans recently. I explain what I think went wrong.

• Finally, the results of Tuesday’s election predict a sizable Democratic edge in the 2026 House midterms, and give them a non-trivial shot at winning back the Senate (I give them a ~30-35% chance). Lots can change, of course, but the upshot for now is clear: Democrats are in the driver’s seat next year. On the core questions of economic stewardship and policy congruence with the average voter, Trump is falling short. Looking ahead, Republicans will face serious headings for Trump breaking his promises on prices.

A transcript of our interview follows. ...