A war in Venezuela would weaken the Western alliance

This edition, co-authored with Imran Bayoumi of the Atlantic Council’s GeoStrategy Initiative, examines how a large-scale US military intervention in Venezuela would weaken the Western alliance to the benefit of Beijing and Moscow. Thanks for reading.

DC’s military buildup in the Caribbean Sea off the coast of Venezuela poses underappreciated risks to Europe. Amid escalating tensions, the U.S. has moved the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, to the region, B-52H Stratofortress bombers continue to fly off the northern coast of South America, and Reuters reported on November 23 that the U.S. planned to launch a new phase of operations in Venezuela, likely including covert action against the regime of Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro. While President Trump is reportedly seeking to negotiate directly with Maduro, his administration is also threatening airstrikes and appears intent on pressuring the regime through covert means and potentially small-scale military attacks. If these maneuvers fail to break the Maduro regime, however, DC may consider a large-scale military intervention.

The U.S. should pressure Maduro, who is one of the world’s worst dictators, to leave power. But a large-scale military intervention in Venezuela is deeply unwise and could significantly weaken the U.S. and its allies in the competition with Beijing and Moscow. Any large-scale intervention, such as the one seemingly under consideration, would hold enormous direct costs: the bill for an expanded Operation Southern Spear, Washington’s campaign against alleged Maduro-linked drug traffickers, could well run into the billions of dollars; escalation could also lead to significant casualties or crowd out other defense investments. Trade-offs in the great power competition are already consequential: over a dozen U.S. ships are deployed around Venezuela instead of higher-priority theaters, such as the Indo-Pacific. Finally, diesel market disruptions will tighten supplies, pushing global prices higher and harming the United States and especially Europe. Russia, the world’s second-largest diesel exporter, would benefit; Europe, historically the world’s largest diesel importer, would face weakened terms of trade. If DC conducts a large-scale military campaign in Venezuela, it will weaken the Western alliance and empower the PRC.

Great Power Implications

With the future of U.S. action in Venezuela, either covert or overt, now a serious risk, it’s worth tracking the effects on the three largest external actors and regions: European nations, China, and Russia.

European nations

Europe faces outsized and underappreciated risks from a large-scale intervention in Latin America. While the effects ...