Nueces County Is Not Red And Never Really Was
Deep Dives
Explore related topics with these Wikipedia articles, rewritten for enjoyable reading:
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South Texas
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The article discusses political shifts among South Texas Hispanics and Nueces County's position in this region. Understanding South Texas's unique demographic history, economic development, and cultural identity provides essential context for why this area has distinct voting patterns compared to the rest of Texas.
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Gerrymandering in the United States
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The article references 'stupid fucking maps' and discusses how redistricting (old maps vs new 2025 maps) directly impacts which congressional candidates campaign in Nueces County and voter mobilization efforts. Understanding the mechanics and legal history of gerrymandering illuminates why district boundaries matter so much for local political outcomes.
Nueces County is the 17th most populous county in Texas. It’s one of the top counties that has been blue in recent years, and although it’s red now, it could go blue again for any election cycle. There’s also been massive demographic changes in this county, and with Republican numbers tanking, Democrats are poised for a massive comeback here. Let’s get into it.
Nueces County’s population changes.
Nueces County is home to Corpus Christi and had a population of about 353,178 in the 2020 census, but its demographic makeup has shifted significantly. Hispanic/Latino residents form the majority, now roughly 65% of the population (up from about 60% in 2010). Meanwhile, the non-Hispanic white population has declined in both share and absolute number. The white population dropped from 32% in 2010 to 27% in 2022.
These demographic trends are important to local politics. The 62% Hispanic population means Latino voters are a crucial electorate. Historically, Hispanic voters in the area leaned Democratic, but recent elections have shown some shifts. In the 2020 presidential election, and continuing into 2022, Republicans improved their performance among South Texas Hispanics (including in Nueces). However, experts note that Hispanic turnout tends to dip in midterms, and that while Republican gains among Hispanics are real, a large portion of Latino voters in Nueces still back Democratic candidates overall.
The demographic makeup (younger and more Latino) suggests Nueces County could be competitive if Democrats galvanize those voters, but low turnout in off-years has often blunted that potential. There are a few things at play:
Polling shows both Trump and Abbott underwater in Texas with Hispanics.
There has been a lot of drama and community involvement, particularly with the local DSA chapter, regarding the desalination plant controversy.
We are expecting Democrats to overperform this year, and they will have candidates in every single seat in this county.
What did Nueces County look like in the last three midterm elections?
Before we get into the numbers, I want to explain the reason that we compare the midterm elections (2026) with other midterm elections (2022, 2018, 2014) is for an apples-to-apples comparison. Different groups vote in midterms vs. presidential elections, turnout is different, and there are different motivators, so comparing it to the last election (2024) will give us the best data to go on.
Voter turnout in Nueces County has been steadily increasing, even
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