Davos Don Insults Allies, Deterred on Greenland (for now). Ukraine Peace Talks. PLA Purges Persist. The Big Five, 25 January edition
A so-called “paper” army, Soviet‑era approaches, excessive bureaucracy, and failures in supplying the front all prevent frontline troops from operating at maximum effectiveness. The system’s internal “hell” is another enemy — one that must be defeated as quickly as possible. Defence Minister Federov, 14 January 2026.
First up, my apologies for not getting an update published last week. I had a good excuse. I was in New Zealand visiting family and celebrating a relative’s 90th birthday.
The past week has seen an array of events that are indicative of the tumultuous, post-Pax Americana era we are living through. The current chaos, emblematic of the interregnum between the post World War Two order and a new global order yet to form, will probably continue for some time to come.
The threats against Greenland and Trump’s subsequent backdown, Iran’s ruthless suppression of protests and dissent without consequences, China’s normalisation of military aggression and economic coercion against its neighbours while most democracies continue to debate whether they can spend more on defence is the context against which we will all live our lives in the coming years - and possibly longer.
Welcome to this week’s edition of The Big Five.
And for all those who celebrate it, happy Australia Day tomorrow!
Ukraine
Davos Don Deterred? After an aborted flight to Davos, the U.S. President finally arrived to mingle with Prime Ministers, Presidents, billionaires and wannabes at Davos, and gave a much anticipated speech. While there were no big surprises from the speech, it contained some key themes which confirm the Trump administration’s view of the world and America’s place in that world:
America is treated unfairly by NATO. The exact quote was “The US is treated very unfairly by NATO. We give so much and we get so little in return.” Which is true if you don’t count decades of peace and stability in Europe, massive two-way trade that has enriched America, European support for America’s war in Afghanistan and the large numbers of casualties European nations suffered, enacting NATO Article 5 on 9/11, etc. While Europeans have underspent on defence for a while, this sense of unfairness from Trump is without any foundation.
America needs to own Greenland. This is a specious argument, and totally without factual basis. The U.S. military is permitted to do pretty much whatever it needs to do in
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