Weekend Update #174: Ukraine Retaking Territory And Starlink

Hello All,

I feel a little guilty about bombarding everyone with so many posts over the last two days. Considering there have been two written pieces and two Substack Lives sent out since Friday, I was even wondering if people really wanted another weekend update. However, there was no way in the end that I could not produce one (its Pavlovian at this stage) so here it is. I will make one mention of the US/Israeli bombing of Iran in the last story, though it will be about possible messages for Ukraine from European leaders. So, the focus of this update, as always, will be on the Russo-Ukraine War.

Just as a note, I will send out an update on the bombing of Iran tomorrow for those who want one. The primer I wrote yesterday still very much holds for now. We have a decapitation strategy in action led by airpower, which seems so far to be going after Iran’s present leadership relentlessly. The question, however, is what happens once you devastate the present leadership? Airpower is very effective at destroying targets, not so effective at creating new regimes.

Here are links to the four things that have just come out, so you can have them in one place if you want.

First, the primer on the US/Israeli bombing campaign, based on what we know and what we need to watch.

Second, Tim Snyder and I held a Substack Live which examined the political and personal motivations that seem to be driving Trump here and what it reveals about the state of US democracy.

Thinking about...

Making Sense of Iran War

This post contains my conversation with military historian Phillips O’Brien about the U.S. strikes on Iran. Phillips walked us through what air power can and can’t do — it can devastate a regime, but it can’t replace one, and what we’ve likely unleashed is a chaotic internal struggle with no clear plan for what comes next…

Listen now

4 days ago · 2893 likes · 79 comments · Timothy Snyder and Phillips P. OBrien

Third, I held a Substack Live with General David Deptula (retd), one of the most important airpower practitioners and thinkers of the past 50 years and discussed the issues surrounding airpower and regime change, while also making reference to the air war in Ukraine and Russia and even the future shape of the US Air ...