Explaining the anti-incumbent backlash
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Many explanations of the US election results appeal to special characteristics Americans would have. They would be uniquely selfish, prone to hatred, or especially uneducated. But as John Burn-Murdoch points out, the US follows a well-established pattern among wealthy nations of anti-incumbent backlash. As he writes,
The incumbents in every single one of the 10 major countries that have been tracked by the ParlGov global research project and held national elections in 2024 were given a kicking by voters. This is the first time this has ever happened in almost 120 years of records. (Financial Times)
While Burn-Murdoch points to post-covid changes such as inflation and high immigration, he does not point to the root cause of all these changes, namely the pandemic itself, and how these nations have reacted to it.
Looking at these reactions and subsequent changes can help explain voter sentiment in the following ways:
1. You cannot declare a pandemic over by social fiat
Many governments simply declared the Covid-19 pandemic over, even as the WHO has not. The problem is, a pandemic is not a psychological state of mind. It's a biological and social phenomenon. Simply declaring it over and resuming normal patterns of social interaction does not stop the unpredictable virus from wreaking havoc.
We are still faced with record levels of long-term illness, and this is so across the developed world. Long-term illness leads many people to leave the workforce and this leads to worker shortages, especially in key groups that are vulnerable to repeat covid infection such as teachers and nurses. News reports make no link to covid (except in terms of “postpandemic”) but if we dig a little deeper into growing medical literature on covid, the data are clear. For example, one in three UK healthcare workers has long covid symptoms. Covid infections also seem to make people more susceptible to other illnesses, heart attacks, strokes, and diabetes, leading to an overall much more ill population.
Incumbent parties tried to regain a feeling of normalcy by massaging people's behavior into pre-pandemic spending patterns. But they were unable to address the structural issues that covid still causes. They were keen to declare victory over the virus (very important for someone like Biden). But declaring victory hamstrung any response to address
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