The Change From Biden To Trump Has Been Devastating For Ukraine
Deep Dives
Explore related topics with these Wikipedia articles, rewritten for enjoyable reading:
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Budapest Memorandum
13 min read
The 1994 agreement where Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances from Russia, US, and UK is essential context for understanding why Ukraine's sovereignty guarantees and NATO membership debates are so contentious - Ukraine already traded away its strongest deterrent based on now-broken promises
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Treaty of Versailles
14 min read
The article's discussion of military sovereignty limits on Ukraine (600,000 troop cap) directly parallels the restrictions imposed on Germany after WWI - understanding how such imposed military limitations affected Germany's sovereignty and contributed to future instability provides crucial historical context
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Finlandization
14 min read
The proposed 28 points essentially describe a modern Finlandization of Ukraine - forced neutrality, constitutional prohibition on alliance membership, and sovereignty restrictions that existed for Finland during the Cold War. Understanding this historical precedent illuminates what's actually being proposed
Hi All,
I was certainly no fan of the Biden Administration’s policies towards Ukraine—and did not keep my criticisms private. One of my most read stories in The Atlantic was about shortcomings in the Biden Administration’s policies towards the Russo-Ukraine War. That being said, there is such a massive gulf between how the Biden Administration approached the war (a little unsure and scared but on the side of Ukraine and supportive of its European allies) and how the Trump administration has approached the war (protecting Putin and putting pressure on Ukraine to weaken itself materially while moving away from Europe), that sometimes people lose perspective of the difference.
The 28 Points that the Trump administration recently drew up with its partners in the Kremlin and then tried to foist on Ukraine has reinforced the stark nature of that difference in way that I do not people have fully understood. We are discussing this plan as a possibility, but if it had been proposed during the Biden Administration it would have been considered a crime against US interests.
In the plan, the Trump Administration made the USA much more pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine in every area of strategic importance—in such a way that the Trump administration is threatening the long-term existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state. To show the difference I thought it would be worthwhile to contrast some of the 28 points with the equivalent positions of the Biden Administration.
To confirm that I have understood the Biden Administration’s positions, I did get confirmation from someone with very close links to the Biden NSC.
Trump’s 28 Points
Lets start with Trump’s 28 points. Here are some examples of where the US is now under his leadership. All of these steps impose massive sovereignty restrictions on Ukraine—in essence making it a poor and vulnerable outcast in Europe as a whole.
The NATO Clauses
3. Russia will not invade neighbouring countries, and Nato will not expand further.
7. Ukraine will enshrine in its Constitution that it will not join Nato, and Nato will adopt a provision stating that Ukraine will not be admitted at any time in the future.
8. Nato will not deploy its troops in Ukraine.
So here we have three clauses all of which are directed to cripple Ukrainian relations with NATO in the future. NATO has
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