The Ukraine War’s New Front Line Is in Mar-a-Lago

EVERY MILITARY ORGANIZATION CONDUCTS battles and operations to meet the strategy set by its civilian leaders. From the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 through roughly June 2025, I have watched along with others and analyzed the tactical battles and the operational campaigns in Ukraine progress through at least ten discernible phases. Each one had distinct objectives, shaped by each side’s conduct of tactical fights—i.e., battles—and the linking of these battles into operational campaigns. In each, both sides have made adjustments based on their respective critical assessments of the art of the possible that would allow them to gain an advantage. These ten phases are my analysis alone. Here is a brief doctrinal summary of each, though these summaries represent a vast oversimplification of what has happened in the four years of war:

Phase I: The initial Russian full-scale invasion and the hasty Ukrainian defense (February–March 2022).

Phase II: Russia’s limited offensive on adjusted fronts, with Ukrainian forces adjusting their hasty defense positions to confront the enemy (April–June 2022).

Phase III: Culminating Russian offensives, and Ukraine taking the initiative with limited hasty attacks (July–September 2022).

Phase IV: While tactical fights continue, an operational pause by both sides, with both sides focused on mass mobilization of personnel and materiel; during this phase, Ukraine’s forces achieved the liberation of Kherson (September–December 2022).

Phase V: Limited action by both sides, with a race between additional Russian mobilization and Ukrainian forces achieving limited force transformation given the supply of new Western equipment and training (December 2022–June 2023).

Phase VI: The Ukrainian summer offensive, delayed by several months for various reasons, pitted against extensive Russian deliberate defenses of minefields, trenches, and long-range weapons (July–October 2023).

Phase VII: The long “slugfest” in the east, with both sides alternating between hasty defensive and hasty offensive operations (October 2024–July 2024).

Phase VIII: The surprising Ukrainian offensives into Kursk and Belgorod (August 2024).

Phase IX: The fight for an advantage; Russia using long-range weapons and Ukraine reinforcing key positions along the front (hindered significantly by Congress’s delay