The Cart Before the Horse: Where Colombia’s Energy Transition Planning Went Wrong

The energy transition is complex business. On the one hand, someone must lead. The world will be stuck with polluting fossil fuels for a long time unless major countries put in place effective policies to encourage clean technology adoption.

On the other hand, governments must also adapt to the transition. Moving too fast can be expensive and risky, as clean technologies are expensive in the early years of their development. Moving too slow can leave a country in deep trouble if others are taking advantage of clean technology.

Colombia’s recent promises to stop fossil fuel extraction highlight the difficulties. The Colombian government has promised to stop extracting and producing fossil fuels without a realistic plan to replace the lost export income.

Colombia’s Leftist President, Gustavo Petro.

1. The promises

Colombia’s leftist government, led by President Gustavo Petro, quickly established itself as the darling of the international energy transition community.

It began as soon as Petro was inaugurated in August 2022. Colombia declared that Colombia would cease signing new oil and gas exploration contracts. This was a bold move for a country that gained over 50% of its export revenue from fossil fuels, notably oil and coal.

Then, in December 2023, Colombia became the first major fossil-producing nation to join the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative. Except for Timor-Leste, the other members of the Initiative are small island nations.

It is not unusual for countries that do not produce fossil fuels to commit to lofty goals. After all, such cheap talk does not cost them anything.

But Colombia is a very different story.

Heavily dependent on oil and coal exports, Colombia also faces the challenge of limited oil reserves. In 2022, Colombia only had reserves equivalent to 7.5 years of production. While this is not necessarily a problem, Petro’s plans to cease new oil exploration would rapidly bring oil production in Colombia to an end.

In what follows, I argue that Colombia’s grandiose promises are helping neither the country nor the world with the energy transition. The energy transition is an important reality for which Colombia needs to prepare, but promises to abruptly stop oil production are not helpful.

2. The problem with the promises

Bold announcements to stop fossil fuel exploration are an important form of leadership by example – but only if they are backed by concrete action.

In Colombia’s case, ceasing fossil fuel exploration would result in an