Goodbye Henry Cuellar?

Thirteen days is all that’s left before the filing deadline slams shut in Texas, and for the first time in a long time, Congressman Henry Cuellar isn’t the only name on the Democratic side of the ballot in TX28. Although thirteen days is plenty of time left for Cuellar to file, with a bloody primary emerging, the question is now, will he?

Two Democrats, Andrew Vantine and Ricardo Villarreal, have already filed with the Secretary of State (SOS). A third, Adriel Ventura Lopez, hasn’t hit the SOS website yet, but he’s out there, website live, campaigning along.

And then there’s Cuellar himself. The eternal problem child of the Texas Democratic Party. For years, he’s been the biggest thorn in our side. This man somehow manages to caucus with Democrats while voting like he’s auditioning for a Cabinet position in a Republican administration. Anti-abortion votes. Helping kill gun reforms. Siding with Big Oil every time the industry snaps its fingers. Backing border militarization. Undercutting labor. And constantly throwing progressives under the bus. If there’s a pressure point in the Democratic coalition, Cuellar has pushed it time and time again.

He insists he’s running again. He wants everyone to believe he’s steady and unbothered. But he still hasn’t filed. And that FBI indictment that’s been floating over his head hasn’t gone anywhere. Voters notice things like that. Challengers definitely do.

So the question now isn’t whether Cuellar can run. It’s whether 2026 is finally the year someone in his own party takes him out.

Why Cuellar’s weakness is real this time.

First, the FBI indictment. Cuellar pretends it’s business as usual, but campaigns live and die by momentum and money. Donors hate uncertainty. Consultants hate uncertainty. Voters especially hate seeing their Congressman’s name and “federal investigation” in the same sentence. Even if he survives, the smell remains.

Second, he still hasn’t filed. For a man obsessed with projecting strength, that silence is deafening. Every day that passes without paperwork is a day his challengers grow more legitimate.

Third, the Democratic base is no longer what it used to be. The left has tolerated Cuellar’s anti-abortion votes, his border militarization stunts, his “good soldier for Big Oil” routine, and his constant undermining of party priorities, but barely. Outside his district, the Congressman’s approval is basically subterranean.

And finally, for the first time in years, there’s a real bench forming. Multiple