Ukraine Dispatch 4: A Trumpian Disaster & A Win for Putin
Ukraine has never sought war. We agreed to an unconditional ceasefire, looked for opportunities for peace, and repeatedly offered the world ways to stop the strikes in the sky, on land, and at sea. But it is Russia that continually obstructs this process – manipulating, dragging out negotiations, terrorizing our people with airstrikes, and intensifying assaults along the front line. The war continues only because Moscow does not want it to end. President Zelenskyy, 19 October
Welcome to my Ukraine Dispatches, updates from my ongoing visit to Ukraine. This is my fourth dispatch, which I wrote while we were driving around southern Ukraine, and published by the Lowy Institute. My first dispatch, which covered Ukrainian military training as well as a certain incident with a snake, is available to read at this link. My second one is available here. My third dispatch, an interview with Nataliie Lutsenko, is available at this link.
Until Trump’s shock social media post last week about his latest conversation with Russia’s President, things had been looking up in the Ukraine-America relationship. Trump and Zelenskyy had completed several collegial in-person meetings in the preceding months. American administration officials were speaking positively about support to Ukraine. U.S. intelligence was being used to support deeper strikes into Russia by Ukrainian weapons and there was talk of Tomahawk missiles being provided to Ukraine.
That all changed with Trump’s social media post, which began with words that probably sent a chill down the spine of Ukrainians and many American allies: “I have just concluded my conversation with President Putin, of Russia, and it was a very productive one.” All the diplomatic progress made by Ukraine in the previous months with the Trump administration was blown away instantly.
This was confirmed during the Friday meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy in Washington DC. The big decision about Tomahawks appears to have been shelved for now, if not all time, as a result of Putin’s lobbying of Trump. And Trump appears hellbent on some kind of ceasefire that freezes the conflict along current Ukrainian and Russian dispositions and that also reinforces Trump’s peace-making credentials in the wake of the Gaza agreement.
This is a disaster for Ukraine, and for America’s allies.
For some time it has been clear that the only way that Putin can achieve even his minimalist goals for his war against Ukraine, which is the complete control over
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