The New Iran War: Trajectory of the War and its Impact on Ukraine and the Pacific.
Nations now exist in an interregnum as they attempt to navigate the roiling and dangerous seas of a post–Pax Americana world. No one can guarantee that this will be a peaceful period, nor can one predict how long this time of global uncertainty could last. CFR, 30 January 2026.
The quote above, from my article in January this year, is entirely relevant to the events of the past 24 hours. The Trump administration has launched a new war against Iran.
There will be many implications of this new conflict; some which can be foreseen (see below), and others that cannot. Wars are full of uncertainty, and because they feature belligerents with agency, they resist the best efforts of humans to impose time limits and achieve certainty about outcomes. I am resisting a Clausewitz quote here.
In this week’s update, I have broken it into three parts. First, I undertake a quick assessment of the likely strategic impacts of the new Iran War on Ukraine and the Pacific Theatre. Second is my normal update on events in Ukraine over the past week. The final part is my update on happenings in the Pacific theatre. Given all that is going on at present, I have dispensed with this week’s Big Five reading recommendations but will return to it next week.
It is worth noting up front that there is still much that could occur and surprise us in the new Iran War. As such, the judgements below are provisional and can change as the direction of the war evolves.
New War in the Middle East: Impacts in Ukraine and the Pacific
It has been a hectic 24 hours tracking the events occurring in the skies and on the ground in Iran as well as the various Iranian retaliatory strikes against Israel and other nations in the Middle East.
Just yesterday, I published a piece that explored short interventions that turn into protracted conflicts. As a veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, I was prompted to write after the U.S. Vice President stated this week that:
The idea that we’re going to be in a Middle Eastern war for years with no end in sight — there is no chance that will happen.
This is exactly what Defense Secretary Rumsfeld said a few months before the beginning of the second Gulf War
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