Two Pieces of the Puzzle
Deep Dives
Explore related topics with these Wikipedia articles, rewritten for enjoyable reading:
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International sanctions during the Russo-Ukrainian war
16 min read
The article centers on the debate over $300 billion in frozen Russian assets and whether Europe should use them to aid Ukraine. Understanding the full scope of international sanctions and asset freezes provides essential context for the geopolitical chess game described.
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Reflexive control
15 min read
The author explicitly references 'Russian reflexive control' as a concept he wrote about previously. This Soviet-era information warfare doctrine explains how one party can manipulate another's decision-making process—directly relevant to the 'con' narrative throughout the article.
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Kirill Dmitriev
11 min read
Dmitriev is mentioned meeting with Kushner and Witkoff in Moscow. As head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund and a key backchannel figure in US-Russia relations since 2016, understanding his role illuminates the business-diplomacy nexus the article describes.
Hi All,
For new readers, a word of warning. I often get things wrong. In fact I make sure to write a summary column at the end of each year which discusses things that I got wrong over the previous twelve months. I am actually going to pre-empt that today because over the last few days/weeks its only become clear how I did not fully understand how the Trump con was working on Ukraine and Europe as a whole, and how important different elements were in governing administration thinking.
With the reporting of the last two weeks, I hope it is clear that the Trump administration has been playing a con game in its periodic pivots to look like they were going to support Ukraine and hammer Russia. Indeed, the details of just how determined the Trump administration is to cut a deal with Russia (and make lots of money) has become clearer. Business negotiations have been ongoing for months, according to the Wall Street Journal, as Trump and Putin have been discussing through intermediaries, the best way to mutually benefit from the relationship.
Protecting Russian Assets So They Can Be Returned To Russia
The original 28-point plan agreed between the US and Russian governments, also made it clear how keen the US side was, at least, to get back to business with Russia. And that reveals one are that I did not credit enough for being key in the con—protecting the approximately $300 billion of seized Russian assets from being used by European states to aid Ukraine.
There has been a discussion for years about whether Europe should use seized Russian assets to help Ukraine. These funds would be invaluable to help Ukraine fight and then help Ukraine rebuild after the war. The US has always been ambivalent about this. However in January 2025, as the Biden Administration was preparing to leave, President Biden came out and said Russian assets should be given to Ukraine.
Making sure that this did not happen has been a huge priority of the Trump Administration and thus a huge part of the con. In Feb-March 2025, when the Trump administration came down like a ton of bricks on Ukraine, they seemed to help energize European leaders to push for Russian
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