Weekend Update #165: Why the Pantomime?
Deep Dives
Explore related topics with these Wikipedia articles, rewritten for enjoyable reading:
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Kirill Dmitriev
11 min read
The article repeatedly mentions Dmitriev as the key Kremlin negotiator meeting with US officials, but readers may not know his background as CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and his long history as a back-channel between Russia and the US
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Minsk agreements
11 min read
Understanding the failed Minsk peace process provides essential context for evaluating current negotiations and the 'framework' language Ryabkov uses - it shows the pattern of diplomatic agreements that Russia has violated before
Hi All,
Well, President Zelensky is on his way to Florida right now to meet with President Trump. Quite why they are meeting is a fascinating subject for discussion. The US is simultaneously running a two-track diplomacy. There are talks with the Russians, primarily Kirill Dmitriev, which are friendly and show common understandings. This was very much on display this week as well. Then there are talks with the Ukrainians, during which the US seems to be acting like an agent of Russia, trying to find out what they can get the Ukrainians to agree to on Putin’s behalf. Much of this might go back to the greatly misunderstood, or underestimated, Anchorage summit in August.
Another story this week involves the ranged war. The Ukrainians attacked Russian refineries. The latter was done with UK/French systems, which was revealing.
Finally, I wanted to extend a word of thanks and gratitude to the readers of this substack. This week saw the substack climb above 100,000 subscribers. It is a figure that is hard to grasp, but shows at least that some people gain something from these writings (and recordings).
I will continue to do my best to live up to the enormous trust you have placed in me. Thank you.
Why The Pantomime?
President Zelensky will meet with President Trump in a few hours. It was another hastily scheduled meeting between the two and has ostensibly been called to see if Ukraine can fully agree a new “peace” plan to present to Putin for the Russian dictator’s approval. We know a little of where the plan is, or at least what the Ukrainians want us to think what the plan says, because its 20 points were outlined to the press by the Zelensky government.
Of course, this Ukrainian version is probably not a reflection of where the Trump administration and Putin are. The US government has not acknowledged these points, and it is clear that the US has a completely separate dialogue going with the Russians. In fact, in a Politico story, Trump was asked about the status of the 20-point plan and the US president turned the tables on the Ukrainians. Trump said that he had not given approval to any new plan, and that Zelensky will have to wait and see what he does.
“He doesn’t have anything until I approve it,” Trump said. “So we’ll see what he’s
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