Tracking China's preparations for war

IF YOU’RE A CASUAL OBSERVER of headlines, “Xi’s looming third term in China raises threat of war over Taiwan” or “No Need to Blow Up TSMC in China War, Taiwan Security Chief Says” may give you the sense that as one deadly and destructive war rages in Ukraine, the world is about to have another in the Taiwan Strait.

It’s not. Defending the island democracy of 23 million in Taiwan is certainly on the mind of national security leaders today, but if another war truly were on the horizon, various economic and military factors would indicate Beijing planned to attack across the roughly 100-mile-wide strait. Yet we’re not currently seeing those signs—good news, obviously—despite worrying stories on how “Taiwan’s citizen warriors prepare to confront looming threat from China” and “The persistent threat of China invading Taiwan.”

So, what are the indicators and how do we know what they are? Thank retired CIA analyst John Culver for answering both questions in this sober and insightful analysis. The 35-year intel veteran notes the warning signs of a full-scale invasion or naval blockade to cut off western support and concludes that if “China decides to fight a war of choice over Taiwan, strategic surprise would be a casualty of the sheer scale of the undertaking.”

The war in Ukraine has shown how modern war requires vast stocks of bombs, missiles, and bullets—which in turn require raw materials, manufacturing capacity, and long production timelines. So China “would have already started surging production” of rockets, ballistic and cruise missiles, and other items “at least a year before D-Day,” according to Culver. Such a surge would be difficult to hide from both western intelligence and civilian analysts armed with excellent commercial satellite imagery.

Beijing’s preparations for war “almost certainly would not be subtle, at least to the U.S. intelligence community,” says Culver, “and probably not to Taiwan and other Western observers.” So here are other things to watch for before any shots are fired in anger…

1 to 2 years out:

• China “would take visible steps to insulate its economy, military, and key industries from disruptions and sanctions.”

• Internally and externally, Beijing would ramp up propaganda against the west and would prepare its citizens “psychologically for the costs of war”—tens of thousands of deaths in combat, financial pain, and civilian deaths from a

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