How Badly Does Ukraine Need American Tomahawk Cruise Missiles?

Picture: U.S. Navy

While the White House floated the option of delivering Tomahawk cruise missiles throughout October, Zelensky’s recent visit to the United States failed to secure a commitment. It now appears that Trump — currently pushing a renewed ceasefire initiative, making overtures toward Putin, and voicing criticism of Ukraine — has effectively decided against supplying the missile.

The question, then, is how badly Ukraine needs Tomahawk missiles and what benefits they would actually provide. As this analysis suggests, their advantages are less straightforward than often assumed, and the opportunity costs of supplying them may ultimately outweigh their utility.

How Tomahawk cruise missiles would fit into Ukraine’s arsenal

Tomahawk is a surface-launched, land-attack cruise missile with an approximate range of 1,600 kilometers. The frequently cited 2,500-kilometer figure refers only to the early TLAM-N variant, which reached that range due to its smaller nuclear payload allowing for a larger fuel tank, but is no longer operational (or relevant in this case).

Most operational variants, and the type Ukraine would likely receive, carry a 310-kilogram unitary warhead containing about 120 kilograms of PBXN-107 high explosive.

For guidance, the missile uses a combination of satellite navigation and terrain contour matching (TERCOM) for midcourse guidance, and digital scene-matching correlation through an electro-optical seeker for terminal guidance. The U.S. is currently upgrading its Tomahawk fleet with electronic warfare–hardened “M-Grade” satellite receivers, though it remains unclear whether Ukraine would receive these improved missiles. In any case, TERCOM should enable accurate midcourse navigation even without continuous access to GPS.

Compared to Ukraine’s existing conventional long-range strike weapons, Tomahawk would represent a “heavy” missile capability, combining a relatively large payload with long range and high accuracy.

The closest equivalent in Ukraine’s arsenal would be the Flamingo cruise missile, reportedly featuring a 3,000-kilometer range and a 1,150-kilogram warhead. However, the status of the program remains highly uncertain, and initial performance appears to have been slightly underwhelming.

Use cases for Tomahawk

Tomahawk offers the advantage of a tripartite combination of long range (1,500+ kilometers), relatively high payload, and high accuracy — a combination of capabilities Ukraine currently lacks in a single missile system. In principle, Tomahawk would therefore expand the range of targets Ukraine could engage with its missile arsenal.

While there are some military targets within range, it would probably make most sense for Ukraine to employ any Tomahawk cruise missiles it might receive in a