Weekend Update #166: The Russian Strategy Would Normally Be Seen As A Failure

Hi All,

Welcome to the first weekend update on 2026. It was a year that in terms of the front line saw approximately the same changes as in 2024—and that means minimal. Russian territorial gains in Ukraine remained at less than 1 percent for the year, yet their casualties were enormous, so much so that maintaining present strength seems to be the best the Russians can do. This kind of strategy would, historically, be seen as a strategy of failure. It is doing little in the way of strategic damage to Ukraine, costing a great deal and gaining little territory. Yet the narrative, too much controlled by Washington, is that the Russian strategy is inexorably rolling to victory. That needs a reset.

Also this week, President Zelensky formally named the Ukrainian director of Military Intelligence (HUR), Kyrylo Budanov, to be his new chief of staff replacing Andrii Yermak, who was forced out in the Ukrainian government’s corruption scandal. Its a noteworthy change that needs some discussion.

Finally, Trump operated entirely under Russian reflexive control, got embarrassed when it was shown just how devoted he was to Putin, and tried to distract people by throwing a little shade. The key thing was the first story not the second—but people do not always get that. It was a case study of just how many people fail to see what matters.

Now for the update.

The Russian Strategy Would Normally Be Seen As A Failure

At the end of 2025 many different groups, analysts did a calculation of all the territory that Russia had seized during the year. The best, by the way, was from the Institute for the Study of War, which is linked to here. In these different reports there were charts, discussions of trends, etc. However the key one was sometimes overlooked. During all of 2025, and at vast cost, the Russians seized less than 1 percent of Ukrainian territory. The ISW’s calculation was that they took .8 of 1 percent.

And that territory was of no strategic value. Most of it was empty fields that the Russians seized using their infiltration tactics—often troops running forward, or on motorcycles or horses, just to the next tree line or structure and hoping to reach it before being killed. Most of the time they are killed or wounded, but sometimes they reach cover—and huzzah the map