How Silver Bulletin calculates our polling averages

This is a quick explainer of the methods Silver Bulletin uses to calculate its continually updating polling averages: presidential approval ratings, the generic congressional ballot, and Elon Musk favorablity ratings. These polling averages are a direct descendant of methods that Nate designed for FiveThirtyEight.1 Our past methodology pages provide some additional context, though Disney/ABC will inevitably nuke what’s left of the FiveThirtyEight archive at some point.

There are some minor differences between our approval rating calculations and our generic ballot numbers, which we’ll explain throughout the text. There are also some differences between these “simple” polling averages and the methods we use to calculate our election forecasts, which include additional steps and leverage the larger volume of polling data available (such as the ability to infer information from both state and national polls). Our forecast for the 2026 midterms will launch mid-year. This page describes solely our continually-updating averages.

Which polls are included

Our general aim is for inclusivity. We seek to include all professionally-conducted surveys. If you don’t see a poll listed, it may be because it’s included under a different name — we list the name of the polling firm rather than the media sponsor (for example, Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. rather than Fox News) — or because we haven’t gotten around to adding it. (Polling averages are typically updated ~6 times per week.) However, here are certain exceptions:

• We don’t use polls banned by Silver Bulletin because we know or suspect that the pollster faked data.

• We don’t use DIY polls commissioned by nonprofessional hobbyists on online platforms such as Google Surveys. These are becoming increasingly common. (Professional or campaign polls using these platforms are fine.)

• We don’t use “polls” that blend or smooth their data using methods such as MRP.

• We exclude polls that ask the voter who they support only after revealing leading information about the candidates. If, for instance, a poll says “Republicans hate puppies. Who do you plan to support: Republicans or Democrats?” we won’t include it.

Internal or campaign polls are included, provided they meet these other standards. For our approval rating averages, there is no distinction between partisan and nonpartisan polls. For the generic ballot, partisan polls are subject to different assumptions about “house effects” (see below). If ostensibly non-partisan pollsters have a history of producing polls for political campaigns or partisan organizations without ...