Transnistria is in Trouble
A series of recent reports have shown that all is not well in Transnistria. Veaceslav Ioniță, economic expert with think-tank IDIS “Viitorul, presented an analysis of the region’s economy that showed that “Transnistria is going through the most serious economic and social crisis in the last 25 years.”
Here are some key comparisons between the Transnistria region and the rest of Moldova1:
Additionally, industrial output from Transnistria has fallen 30% in a single year. The region is now operating at 75% of their 1989 industrial output.
Veaceslav Ioniță estimates that 60% of the region’s economic activity relies on Russian gas. On February 5th the MGRES power station switched over from natural gas to coal. No reason was given and they switched back to gas on Monday February 9th. The interruption implies continued difficulties getting deliveries of Russian gas. Transnistria now has an extremely limited emergency supply of coal after last winter’s long crisis. They are unable to resupply as the coal required comes from a specific mine in the Donbas under Russian occupation.
Quick Analysis: Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy has again offered to provide coal to Transnistria. Moldova’s Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration Valeriu Chiveri stated that he doesn’t know the specifics of this offer - but that the key stumbling block is that the Transnistrian “authorities” need to be willing to accept help. He then pivoted to say that gas crises will likely keep happening every 10-15 days because Russia keeps changing the company making the payments (largely due to blocks by EU sanctions). He called on the Transnistrians to accept Chisinau / Europe’s offer of alternative supplies. As I wrote - Ukraine does not have this coal. So there are multiple levels to the messaging game being played here. I wrote about this last year and the analysis largely still holds up.
Looking at the big picture, Ioniță explained the depth of the crisis writing:
...“In 2025, the left bank of the Dniester River entered the deepest economic and social crisis in at least the last 25 years. Industry has collapsed, GDP has fallen dramatically, exports are at a historic low, and the population - both employees and pensioners - lives worse than a decade ago. All these developments show an extremely complicated situation, unprecedented
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