The US strategy to confront China
THE UNCLASSIFIED 2022 National Defense Strategy is out and everyone in the national security world has thoughts on it. It’s a good document that rightly places China as the main threat, some say; others think it’s similar to the last one with new buzzwords. And my favorite, from former Pentagon official Kathleen McInnis: “Every four years, the strategic studies community tackles the NDS and its core concepts with the enthusiasm and vigor of kids taking down a piñata at a birthday party.” After that, she dives into the central tenet of the document known as “integrated deterrence,” which boils down to having the entire federal government speak with one voice to deter America’s rivals.
That’s easier said than done, McInnis writes. “That the U.S. government’s right hand should be able to talk to and work with its left hand is obvious. Yet anyone who has worked in an interagency setting knows exactly how hard it can be to get the government to speak with one voice and act towards a common intention.”
China—the main adversary we face in this “decisive decade,” according to the NDS—doesn’t have the same issue. Chinese President Xi Jinping recently secured his long-term hold on power and can issue orders to Communist Party officials through thousands of “red phones” sitting on their desks.
But the era of the Pentagon claiming its freedom of navigation operations near Chinese shores, reconnaissance flights, and multilateral exercises are merely “‘things we have always done’ is over,” says John Culver, a retired CIA officer with extensive expertise in China, previewing what’s likely to come in response from Beijing:
“This will incentivize Chinese responses, especially with U.S. allies and partners in the region, including pointed exercises by the People’s Liberation Army.”
You can view the full National Defense Strategy here or check out the easily digestible whiteboard version by Marine Lt. Kayla Haas:
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