US says Beijing providing “very substantial” help to Russian war efforts

In a highly significant development, the United States' Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said in comments reported by Politico Europe that:

“Beijing is giving Moscow "very substantial" help to beef up its war machine, and in return Russia is handing over its closely guarded military tech on submarines and missiles, the United States' Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said Tuesday.

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"The capabilities that Russia is providing is support in areas where previously they had been frankly reluctant to engage directly with China," Campbell said. "We are concerned about a particular number of military arenas where there appears to be some determination to provide China with greater support.

"That has to do with submarine operations, activities of aeronautical design, including stealth; that also involves capacities on missile capabilities," he said.”

You can read the full article here.

I’ll publish a longer think piece later this month or early in October, but Russia’s potential transfer of submarine technologies could have profound implications for the military balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, and for Russia’s own strategic deterrent.

The transfer of Russian military technologies could impact the security balance in the Indo-Pacific in the medium-term, after the PRC force structures absorb and incorporate the new technologies and information. Chinese submarines are generally noisy but have improved in recent years. Indeed, Russian tech may have already aided Chinese submarine development, either voluntarily or involuntarily. The PLAN has likely become a more capable fighting force due to Moscow’s apparent decision to transfer crucial military technologies, especially in submarines.

Why would Moscow transfer some of its most vital military secrets? It’s possible that Moscow believes the transfer of submarine and other advanced military technologies to the PRC is more or less inevitable. Russian signals and human intelligence have been battered in recent years (as a CRR article described in early 2023). Russia’s SIGINT capabilities were always outclassed by the PRC and the United States but have deteriorated due to the invasion of Ukraine and the resulting exodus of Russian IT professionals, as well as the PRC’s continued encroachment on Russian telecommunications infrastructure, including via Huawei’s incorporation into Russian 5G. Turning to HUMINT, Russia has traditionally been the world leader at human intelligence, but these capabilities have been degraded by the technologization of espionage and the rise of sensors and surveillance; the expulsion of so many of its intelligence officers across the ...