Are You Ready? Zelenskyy's Message at Munich. The Big Five, 15 February edition
Are you ready – not only for the challenges that Russian aggression brings, the challenges of modern war – but also for the constant effort to convince the world, to fight for support, to defend your country’s interests every single day, as Ukraine must do? President Zelenskyy, Munich Speech, 2026.
Another week in the Ukraine war has passed, and as we approach four years since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, the patterns of conflict on the ground, in the air and in the info-sphere remains drearily familiar. Russian forces continue their methodical, but very costly advances on the ground in eastern Ukraine despite the shutdown of Starlink this week.
At the same time Russia continues to attack Ukraine’s critical infrastructure through its long-range aerial bombardment campaign. Meanwhile, in Munich, discussion about the war and diplomatic efforts move forward at a glacial pace.
In the Pacific, a stunning electoral victory by the incumbent Japanese prime minister resets the politics of the region and demonstrates to China that democracies in the western Pacific are not meekly rolling over to some form of future Chinese hegemony.
Welcome to this week’s Big Five.
Ukraine
Munich and Diplomacy. The week saw limited developments in the diplomatic realm. Despite the Ukrainian cooperation with American negotiators, and their indicated willingness to negotiate a war termination agreement, talks have been less about genuine progress toward peace and more about political theatre (especially from Russia).
In the past week, many media outlets reported that President Zelenskyy might announce plans for presidential elections and a referendum on a peace deal on 24 February—the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The Financial Times reported that both votes could be held by 15 May, with Ukraine potentially risking loss of proposed US security guarantees if it failed to meet this deadline.
However, Zelenskyy denied these reports, stating he heard about the plan “for the first time” from the Financial Times. He reiterated that elections would occur when there are “all relevant security guarantees” and emphasized that voting requires a ceasefire. Zelenskyy was quoted by the BBC stating that:
Elections could be held in the next 60 to 90 days if security for the vote was guaranteed with the help of the US and other allies
The Trump administration is demanding that both the election and referendum
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