New Republican voters are much less MAGA. That will hurt the party in 2026.
Deep Dives
Explore related topics with these Wikipedia articles, rewritten for enjoyable reading:
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Political realignment
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The article discusses shifting voter coalitions and 'New Entrant Republicans' who previously voted Democrat - this directly relates to the political science concept of realigning elections where voting blocs fundamentally shift between parties
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Reagan Democrat
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Median voter theorem
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The article's core tension - that new GOP voters hold more progressive views than core Republicans - directly relates to this political science theory about how parties must moderate to win swing voters, and the strategic implications for 2026
Dear readers,
This is my weekly roundup of new political data published over the last week. While the obvious news story this week is about the special election in TN-07, I am trying to use this Sunday column to highlight interesting or otherwise under-covered data.
The lead story slot for this issue is about a new poll exploring the attitudinal differences between core MAGA voters and the new Republican voters who powered Donald Trump’s victory in 2024. This new data also explains Republicans’ poor position heading into 2026.
On deck here at Strength In Numbers: On Tuesday, I will write about the results of a new survey into the way cable news disproportionately covers right-leaning issues. On Wednesday or Thursday, I may have a short piece up on an interesting crosstab of data from my November Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll. And on Friday, readers will get the usual Chart of the Week reacting to the news of the next 5 days.
1. New Republicans are more left-leaning, younger, and anti-system
Last week, the Manhattan Institute, a conservative right-leaning think tank, put out the first of several reports on a poll they conducted that divided the Republican Party into two groups: Core Republicans (65%) and “New Entrant” Republicans (29%). The survey revealed these new Republicans are more progressive and anti-system than Core Republicans, and recently voted for Democrats at a very high rate.
Jesse Arm and Matthew Knee, pollsters for the Manhattan Institute, report:
a sizeable minority—new entrants to the GOP coalition over the past two presidential cycles—look markedly different. Younger, more racially diverse, and more likely to have voted for Democratic candidates in the recent past, this group diverges sharply from the party’s core. They are more likely, often substantially more likely, to hold progressive views across nearly every major policy domain. They are more supportive of left-leaning economic policies, more favorable toward China, more critical of Israel, and more liberal on issues ranging from migration to DEI initiatives.
The first report is mostly about the “Core Republicans” group, so there is sadly a lack of information about the political beliefs of the (in my opinion, more interesting) New Republicans group. Hopefully, we will get more information about that group in the next report.
But the general finding here is interesting. This is a group that deserves a lot more attention.
While many post-election surveys have ...
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