2025 In Review: The Year The US Changed Sides
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Hi All,
Writing this end of year piece has been daunting. There have been so many developments during this past year which changed so much about the Russo-Ukraine War and the world in general that focussing on one seemed impossible. For the war, there was the growth of UAV technology over the battlefield, the broadening ranged-weapon war into Ukraine and Russia, the disjointed European decision making process on aiding Ukraine, the growth of Chinese support for Russia, etc. Internationally there was massive developments from the Trump tariff-war, the weakening of US alliances in Europe and Asia, the improvement of China’s position, the war(s) in the Middle East, etc etc.
However when you step back and look at things from a broad perspective, one thing towers over the others.
2025 was the year that the USA changed sides.
In 2024 the US was a strong (and growing) supporter of Ukraine and an opponent of Russian aggression. In 2024 the US worked hard to organize and support its NATO allies, it was increasingly committed to helping Taiwan and was working assiduously to increase its friendships/alliances throughout the Indo-Pacific region.
In 2025 all of that ended. The US ended direct support for Ukraine and provided a great deal of diplomatic support and cover for Russia. It weakened, perhaps fatally, much of its alliance structure around the world. It entered trade wars with its friends and economically enhanced states that it used to see as its competitors. The USA even ended up codifying this new international reality in its 2025 National Security Strategy, which named European democracies as the great problem and handled Russia and China with kid gloves, arguably kindness. The changing of sides was being proclaimed from the rooftops.
And yes, this is the USA—not Trump. People need to constantly acknowledge this truth. The American people clearly voted for Trump after Jan 6th 2021, after years of him praising Putin, after him attacking Ukraine and talking about undermining NATO. None of what he is doing now should have been a surprise. And since the 2024 election the US political system has enabled Trump. The Republican Party has refused to stand up to him when it could and instead has written him basically a blank check to remake the US position in the world. So this is an
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