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Can we predict the future?

By a16z crypto · web3 with a16z · · 5 min read

Deep Dives

Explore related topics with these Wikipedia articles, rewritten for enjoyable reading:

  • Commodity Futures Trading Commission 12 min read

    The article emphasizes that regulation has been 'central to Kalshi's success' and calls compliance a 'moat,' but doesn't explain the CFTC, which is the primary U.S. regulator that approved Kalshi as the first regulated prediction market exchange. Understanding the CFTC's role illuminates why prediction markets were previously unavailable to Americans.

IN THIS EDITION

  • What prediction markets mean for the future of finance and forecasting, with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour

  • 70+ gift ideas for crypto and non-crypto friends and family alike

  • New moves in consumer DeFi and other updates from Cash App, Fidelity, and FinCEN

PREDICTION MARKETS

Pricing the future: A conversation with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour

Kalshi Cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour joins host Robert Hackett for a conversation about how prediction markets are making it possible to trade directly on real-world events — from elections to inflation — and what this means for the future of finance and forecasting.

Tarek explains why prediction markets aren’t gambling, how regulation has been central to Kalshi’s success, and why the company is embracing crypto and stablecoins as key components of its international strategy. He also discusses lessons learned about policy, product design, and staying compliant while innovating at the frontier.

This episode kicks off a special series of interviews recorded live at our recent Founders Summit. Subscribe to web3 with a16z crypto for more conversations with founders and builders shaping the decentralized future.

Key moments:

00:00 – What are prediction markets, and why now?
01:20 – Why crypto fits into Kalshi’s long-term strategy
10:19 – Lessons from FTX, and why compliance is a moat
11:33 – How Kalshi monitors markets and works to prevent manipulation
17:24 – The hidden advantage of being regulated
18:20 – Lightning round: worst advice, productivity habits, and more
21:43 – The smallest hill Tarek will die on: No kombucha

RETAIL INVESTMENTS

What we’re gifting this holiday season

Thanksgiving is approaching here in the U.S., which means it’s the perfect time to scour seasonal sales and kickstart your holiday shopping.

Whether you’re looking to find something unexpected for the person in your life who seems to have everything or reward yourself with something special, our annual gift guide offers 70+ ideas handpicked by the a16z crypto team, from our favorite tech to self-care staples.

There’s a lot here, ranging in price and with options for all ages. We’ve included gifts everyone will appreciate (AirPods), aesthetic picks for the hard-to-please (wooden puzzles), and gadgets we didn’t know we needed (a peanut butter stirrer, anyone?).

Here’s what else members of our team are recommending…

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