Everybody’s talking about prediction markets, here's what to know

IN THIS EDITION:

• Everybody’s talking about prediction markets (and us too, again)

• Advice for founders fundraising: Stop trying to get preempted!

• When hiring for crypto, or doing marketing in crypto: When do — and don’t — you need crypto-native experience?

• From city blocks to blockchains: The latest on congestion pricing, carpooling, and commuter welfare

• Industry news and updates: a universal standard for AI-driven payments and agentic commerce; yet another stablecoin, credit card, more; and… “Was this thing built by people I trust?”

ZEITGEIST

Everybody’s talking about prediction markets — here’s what you need to know

Scott Kominers, Alex Tabarrok, and Sonal Chokshi

Prediction markets are a hot topic again — even cartoon characters are talking about them (thanks, South Park?). But beyond the buzz, what is a prediction market, exactly? How do they work, how are they designed, and what makes them work?

We tease apart the signal vs. the noise in this deep-dive episode featuring experts Alex Taborrok (professor of economics at George Mason University) and Scott Kominers (a16z crypto research partner and Harvard Business School professor), in conversation with Sonal Chokshi. While we originally covered this topic during last year’s election, the discussion is more relevant than ever today, as we go into the claims people make about prediction markets — what they’re good for (and not); how they fit in with other trends like AI, futarchy, and the crisis in scientific publishing; and where blockchains/ crypto comes in.

This is your definitive explainer on the topic; listen (or read it) here.

COMPANY BUILDING

Advice for founders: Stop trying to get preempted

Arianna Simpson

The “not-raising-raise” playbook for fundraising became very popular a few years ago. That time (2020-2021) represented a very different market and environment: The IPO market was hot, stocks were ripping, and interest rates were near zero; it was hard to distinguish strong fundamentals from ZIRP phenomena.

But a lot of startup founders are still opportunistically taking VC meetings today, hoping to be preempted in their fundraising round, even if they aren’t officially raising (they’re “heads down building”). The problem is this strategy doesn’t work out for most of those founders. The best way to know you’re being preempted? There’s a term sheet in your inbox. Short of that, you’re really being asked to run a fundraising process with a single bidder.

The founders who are seeing the most success in fundraising today are ...