Trivium China Podcast | Breaking down the Central Economic Work Conference
Deep Dives
Explore related topics with these Wikipedia articles, rewritten for enjoyable reading:
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Li Qiang
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Mentioned as a key attendee at the CEWC, Li Qiang is China's current Premier and the top official responsible for economic policy implementation. His background and policy approach directly shape the economic decisions being analyzed.
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Five-year plans of China
10 min read
The podcast references preparations for the five-year plan and Beijing's long-term economic vision. Understanding China's planning system and how these plans have historically shaped industrial and economic policy provides essential context for the CEWC discussion.
At the end of each year, China’s top economic policymakers get together for the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) to discuss their goals for the year ahead.
This year’s CEWC wrapped up on December 11, and in this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, get together to discuss the ins and outs of the meeting’s official readout.
Warning: The readout from the CEWC is invariably a big-picture policy document that’s frustratingly thin on detail.
Deciphering what the leadership means takes a little bit of reading between the lines.
And that’s exactly what the gents do!
They start off with their 30,000-foot takeaways (TL;DR: Beijing envisions 2026 looking a lot like 2025).
Then they get into:
Where we might expect extra government spending
Whether Beijing will double down on the consumer goods trade-in program
How Beijing intends to boost consumption
Transcript follows:
Andrew Polk:
Hi, everybody, and welcome to the latest Trivium China Podcast, a proud member of the Sinica Podcast Network. I’m your host, Trivium co-founder Andrew Polk, and I’m joined today once again by Trivium head of markets research, Dinny McMahon. Dinny, how are you doing, dude?
Dinny McMahon:
Doing well. Good to see.
Andrew:
Yeah, great to have you on, as always. In this podcast, we are going to get into the Central Economic Work Conference that just concluded in Beijing on Thursday, and which set out sort of the macroeconomic policy direction for 2026. So, pretty simple, straightforward in terms of what we’re going to talk about today, which is going to be Dinny’s last part of the year as he’s about to head off on vacation for the balance of the year. So, I’m sure he’s ready to wrap this up and get going. Maybe I just did your vibe for you, but, you know, we also have to do the customary vibe check, Dinny. How’s your vibe?
Dinny:
Better than yours, mate. You look like death warmed up.
Andrew:
I feel like death warmed up. Yeah, my vibe is recovering from the flu. My entire family has it now. And I was the tip of the spear for once. Usually, the kids get sick first, and it filters upward. But, somehow, I was the weak link this time.
Dinny:
Typhoid Mary.
Andrew:
Yeah. As always though, we’re going to cut through any negative vibes and any sick vibes and ...
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