Donald Trump is Joe Biden now

I was not originally going to post today. A few data projects and other pieces are behind schedule, and I want to give some attention to the business and book I’m trying to get off the ground before next year.

Then I read this piece in the Times about how Trump is trying to take back the affordability issue from the Democrats — and I have some thoughts.

The portion of the article that sparked this post reads:

As Mr. Trump sought to recalibrate his economic messaging after the election, he claimed there was “no inflation,” that gas prices were almost at $2 and grocery prices were “way down.” To illustrate the point, he repeatedly pointed to a report from Walmart showing that the cost of a Thanksgiving meal would be 25 percent less than under President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

“2025 Thanksgiving dinner under Trump is 25% lower than 2024 Thanksgiving dinner under Biden, according to Walmart,” Mr. Trump wrote in a post on Thursday. “My cost are lower than the Democrats on everything, especially oil and gas! So the Democrats ‘affordability’ issue is DEAD! STOP LYING!!!”

Mr. Trump risks being in a similar position as his predecessor, defending his record by pointing to statistics that don’t capture a troubling reality that many Americans are feeling.

This all dovetails nicely with what I’ve been writing about economic voting in 2024 and 2025, and has some lessons for 2026/2028.

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Anxiety about “prices” does not just mean inflation

The last portion of the Times excerpt above resonates with me as I have recently found myself among a group of political scientists and elections analysts who have argued that high nominal prices, not just annual change in prices (AKA “inflation”) is what sunk Biden/Democrats in 2024. We are opposed in our stance by a group of mostly hyper-online, well-off #posters who attest that the economy was good in 2024 because the rate of inflation was dropping, Biden just lost because the press killed him with negative rhetoric. I say I think the press plays a role, but voters’ economic anxieties cannot simply be hand waved away when household bills went up 30% during Biden’s presidency.

But as I have pointed out, there is no reason ...