Democrats expand lead in U.S. House polls this week

After this November’s off-year elections, I argued that the Democrats’ sweep from Georgia to New Jersey wasn’t the result just of Democratic-leaning turnout, but the product of real swings to the left among key voting groups. Two such groups were Latinos and voters who care most about the economy — the latter of which went from backing Trump by over 60 points in 2024 to backing Democratic candidates for governor by roughly 30 points in 2025. Latino-heavy precincts in New Jersey moved left by 50 points.

This week, polls confirmed the Democrats’ rosy position with voters, and even showed a sizable shift toward the party compared to previous data. In one notable survey from Marist College, sponsored by NPR/PBS News, Democrats held a 14-point lead over Republicans in the U.S. House “generic ballot” test (the “generic ballot” is a poll question that asks voters who they would vote for in their local congressional district if the 2026 elections were held today). NPR ran with the headline “Democrats have biggest advantage for control of Congress in 8 years.”

The Marist poll is an outlier, but not the only poll to show a trend toward Democrats this week. Today’s Chart of the Week: Democrats post their best week yet in generic ballot polls for the 2026 midterms.

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A very good week of generic ballot polls for Democrats

First, consider the toplines. Since Nov. 13, six national pollsters have released House generic ballot surveys. All of them show Democrats ahead, with margins ranging from D+3 to D+14 and an average of about D+6. That’s a noticeably bluer environment than what we were looking at even a month ago, when Democrats’ edge in most surveys was in the low single digits or non-existent (more on that later).

Two things are worth flagging here. First, these aren’t just “friendly” outfits — the list includes everyone from non-partisan firms like YouGov and Verasight to media pollsters, including Marist and Marquette, to Republican consultant shops like Echelon Insights. The data here are from high-quality firms with solid