Oil, wheat, spies, lies

A short newsletter. Two suggested articles and a long paper up top: The Economist recently released “Why is Xi Jinping building secret commodity stockpiles?” The article is very much worth your time, although it’s worth noting the difficulties of accurately measuring China’s crude oil stocks: different analysts arrive at different figures. Additionally, I’ve written “China’s high-stakes diplomacy: Managing Middle Eastern turmoil” for The Lowy Institute. The piece examines how the crisis could impact Chinese interests largely by applying an economic/energy lens. I’ve also included a chart below that was cut in the interests of time.

Sources: PRC General Administration of Customs, Author’s Calculations

Finally, Gabriel Collins of Rice University and Andrew S. Erickson of the U.S. Naval War College have written “Annexation of Taiwan: A Defeat From Which the US and Its Allies Could Not Retreat.” I haven’t gone through the full 100+ page report yet but will. The executive summary and access to the full paper is here.

Table of Contents:

1)      Oil and the Middle East

2)      Wheat/Agriculture

3)      Russian security services

1)      Oil and the Middle East

Regular Press Conference by Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian on August 1, 2024 – [Chinese-language, machine translated] PRC MFA

Iraqi Rudao TV reporter: What impact will Haniyeh's assassination have on China's peace efforts in the Middle East? Will it affect the signing of the China-mediated agreement not long ago [the Beijing Declaration]? In addition, the increasingly complex situation in the Middle East will distract or weaken China's efforts to achieve security, stability and peace in the region?

Lin Jian: China has stated its position on the relevant incident. We firmly oppose and condemn the assassination and are deeply concerned that this incident may lead to further destabilization of the regional situation. Gaza should achieve a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire as soon as possible to avoid further escalation of conflict and confrontation.

China has always supported internal reconciliation in Palestine and believes that achieving internal reconciliation in Palestine is an important step in promoting the resolution of the Palestinian issue and achieving peace and stability in the Middle East. China appreciates the efforts made by various Palestinian factions to reach the Beijing Declaration and sincerely hopes that the various Palestinian factions will realize the establishment of an independent Palestinian state at an early date on the basis of internal reconciliation. China will continue to