Weekend Update #163: Ukraine Goes From Collapsing to Liberating Kupyansk
Deep Dives
Explore related topics with these Wikipedia articles, rewritten for enjoyable reading:
-
Attrition warfare
10 min read
The article describes a grinding conflict where Russia advances slowly at enormous human cost while Ukraine preserves forces. Understanding attrition warfare as a military strategy helps readers grasp why small territorial gains matter less than casualty ratios and operational sustainability.
-
First-person view (radio control)
15 min read
The article mentions how weather and wind affect Ukrainian UAV effectiveness. FPV drones have revolutionized this conflict, and understanding how they work, their limitations in adverse weather, and their tactical applications illuminates why environmental conditions shift battlefield dynamics.
Hello All,
It has been a week of some awakenings on the European continent. The impact of the US National Security has been real, at least emotionally. Some Europeans, even previously staunch Atlanticists, are openly acknowledging that the USA is now not even to be seen as a neutral but instead to be understood as an enemy of liberal democracy in Europe. Not everyone has changed and we do not know how this will be translated into policy, but the discussion is shifting and this shift is a vital pre-requisite to shifting policy.
Also, the land war showed that no, Ukraine was not about to collapse again, as some analysts and the press were hinting. The Ukrainians even pushed the Russians away from Kupyansk and surrounded some Russian forces there. Is the course of the land-war changing? No. However it is important to understand that Ukraine is not about to collapse and is not doomed. That is the narrative that you are going to hear more and more from Washington and Putin’s friends in other places. It is a deliberately destructive narrative, composed to try and convince Ukraine’s partners that Ukraine should be forced to take any old terrible deal that Putin and Trump cook up. That is why it needs to be fought.
Also, a happy/sad announcement. Minna Alander has reached the end of her column writing here. She wants, understandably, to concentrate on her own Substack, the Northern Flank Notes. Needless to say I wish her well and urge people to keep following her there. All the best to her!
And now, on to the update.
Ukraine Goes From Collapsing to Liberating Kupyansk
It was just over a week ago that the reporting about the Ukrainian military situation once again took a very dark turn. The New York Times for one published a story which was rich with undertones of Ukrainian failure.
Relying to a large degree on a group of Finnish analysts (who were prophesying doom for Pokrovsk 16 months ago) the story made it seem that the landwar was taking an ominous turn for Ukraine. Here is maybe the key section from the piece, notice how they get the word “collapse” in even by saying its not about to happen “now”? Nice flex.
But Russia’s pace is quickening, and incremental moves
...This excerpt is provided for preview purposes. Full article content is available on the original publication.