#23 A Primer on Recent Portuguese Political Scandals

Yesterday's election saw the center-right Democratic Alliance (AD), led by Luís Montenegro, secure the most seats but fall short of a majority. The far-right Chega party made significant gains, nearly surpassing the Socialist Party (PS) for second place. This represents the worst election result in the PS's history and signifies a notable shift in Portugal's political landscape. Until recently characterized by the traditional European bipolar left-right axis, Portugal is now a multi-bloc system typical of other Western European countries, featuring a center-right, a radical right, and a left bloc. These results were a significant deviation from recent polls, which had indicated the PS holding an 8-point lead over Chega. It’s unclear whether a government can emerge from these results.

What is particularly striking is that the parties at the center of recent political scandals were the primary beneficiaries of the election results. A recap of these scandals can be useful.

1. The Prime Minister sort of owns a consultancy firm whose clients hold government contracts

The snap elections held on May 18, 2025, just over a year after the previous ones, were triggered by a scandal involving then Prime Minister Luís Montenegro. Opposition parties accused him of indirect self-enrichment due to his ties to Spinumviva, a consultancy firm he founded. These accusations led to failed censure motions, ultimately culminating in his government losing a parliamentary vote of confidence on March 11, 2025.

Some of Spinumviva's clients held government contracts. Notably, Solverde, a state-concessioned casino operator, had been paying Spinumviva a monthly fee of 4500EUR a month since 2021, a relationship Montenegro attributed to his personal friendship with shareholders. He pledged to recuse himself from any decisions involving Solverde.

Further controversy surrounded Montenegro's 2022 transfer of his majority stake in Spinumviva to his wife, raising legal questions about its validity under their marital property regime. While Montenegro denied any conflict of interest, stating the sale occurred when he assumed leadership of the PSD party (the main party within the AD), it was revealed that several Spinumviva clients, including ITAU (which provides bar and restaurant services on trains), INETUM (information technology), and Sogenave (a food processing company), secured significant state contracts during his government.

The justice system is investigating an anonymous complaint against Montenegro and Spinumviva. Despite these scandals, the AD, under Montenegro's leadership, won the most seats in the election, suggesting these issues did not significantly deter voters. Few people like to ...